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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Range Break to Offer Guidance

Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Range Break to Offer Guidance

2020-01-14 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD carving weekly opening-range just below technical resistance
  • Aussie outlook remains constructive near-term while above 6809

The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the Asia-open this week with Aussie trading just below a near-term resistance pivot. While the broader outlook remains constructive, a deeper pullback may offer more favorable entries within the confines of the October advance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Technical Forecast - Trade Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie, “breakout failed at a big resistance zone last week and the risk is for a deeper pullback from here before resumption. From a trading standpoint, look for possible downside exhaustion / opportunity to fade a low on a stretch lower into 6809/27 IF price is indeed heading higher.” Price registered a low at 6849 last week before turning higher – was that the low we were looking for?

AUD/USD has continued to trade within the confines of this ascending pitchfork formation extending off the October / November lows with daily resistance eyed at the median-line / 61.8% retracement at 6927 – a topside breach / close above is needed to validate a larger recovery targeting the January 2019 low-day close / 2020 open at 7005/16. Daily support rests with the 50% retracement at 6851 with a break below 6809 needed to put the bears back in control.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action sees AUD/USD carving a weekly opening-range just below near-term resistance at 6923/27 – looking for a reaction here. A breach would expose subsequent resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement of the decline at 6962- strength beyond this threshold would keep the focus on 7005/16 and key resistance at 7031/42. Interim support rests at 6851 and at the lower parallel (currently 6820s) – both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

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Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a break of the 6851-6927 range for guidance with the broader outlook weighted to the topside in Aussie while above 6809. From at trading standpoint, look for possible downside exhaustion while above the lower parallel with a breach above the median-line needed to mark resumption.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.53 (60.53% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 4.47% lower than yesterday and 20.08% higher from last week
  • Short positions are8.48% higher than yesterday and 0.65% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Aussie trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
AUD/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -3% -4%
Weekly 3% -13% -5%
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Key Australia / US Data Releases

Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Trade Outlook

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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