Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Gold Price Weekly Outlook: Gold Rips to 5-Year Highs- Buyers Beware

Gold Price Weekly Outlook: Gold Rips to 5-Year Highs- Buyers Beware

What's on this page

Gold prices are up more than 4.1% this week and for a fifth consecutive weekly advance in XAU/USD. The rally marks the largest single-week advance since April of 2016 with price now probing a key resistance zone at fresh five-year highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly price chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly Technical Outlook - GLD Forecast

Notes: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the, “The weekly opening-range is set in Gold heading into the FOMC interest rate decision later today – look for the break…. A topside breach keeps the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 high-week close at 1366 and the 38.2% retracement / 2014 high at 1380/92 (critical).” A breakout post-Fed led the advance with the rally taking XAU/USD to fresh multi-year highs (high registered at 1411). The focus is on a weekly close heading into Friday with price now testing key resistance at 1380/92 – note that basic parallel / channel resistance converges on this zone and further highlights its technical significance.

A close above this threshold keeps the focus on subsequent topside objectives at 1433 and the 100% extension of the late-2015 advance at 1451- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Interim support now 1366 backed by the 2018 high-week close at 1350. Broader bearish invalidation now raised to the February high-week close at 1327.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a weekly close above this critical resistance zone at multi-year highs. A close above 1392 would keep the immediate long-bias viable heading into the final week of June trade. Failure here would highlight the risk for near-term exhaustion. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stop. Ultimately, a pullback would offer more favorable entries closer to the former 2016 trendline. I’ll publish an updated Gold Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action next week. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold Trader Sentiment (XAU/USD)

Gold Trader Sentiment - GLD Positioning - XAU/USD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +1.37 (57.8% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 6.3% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold price (XAU/USD) -bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES