News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Notice

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • When is Kodak going to get into the SPAC game? Bitcoin mining pivot in 2018 and Vaccine production pivot in July 2020. Any day now...
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.19% Gold: 0.74% Oil - US Crude: 0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/QNPEEysdEK
  • The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 will look to the arrival of earnings season for influence. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/96vOGDYq2K https://t.co/xUE3PxGz9B
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.41%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/akuL5mmcvW
  • Pfizer states it can deliver 10% more vaccine doses to the US by the end of May $PFE $SPX $NDX $RUT
  • Had the pleasure of sitting down with @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal for another episode of The Macro Setup to discuss $GLD $BTC and $SPX ahead of earnings season and the Coinbase IPO Watch here - https://t.co/6usEdkA5om
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: 0.00% FTSE 100: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0qT3sH7l3i
  • #Bitcoin breaks out to fresh all-time highs as investors cast an eye to the long awaited Coinbase IPO #BTC $BTCUSD https://t.co/qwxlzkGa9C
  • NY Fed Treasury purchase schedule remains unchanged - BBG
  • Silver posting a strong session, now up 2.3% on the day. In recent trade, silver has struggled to break above the 50-day EMA $XAG $USD https://t.co/BetnXeKLj3
US Dollar Index Weekly Price Outlook: DXY Do or Die into NFP

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Outlook: DXY Do or Die into NFP

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The US Dollar Index is down more than 1.2% from the yearly highs registered last month with the decline now approaching support near the April lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the DXY weekly price chart heading into tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payroll release. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart (DXY)

US Dollar Index Price Chart - DXY Weekly - USD Outlook

Notes: In my April US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that DXY had, “broken above the yearly opening-range and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF prices fail to close the week above the 2011 parallel.” Price failed to close above this slope for nearly five weeks with DXY turning lower to break below the May lows yesterday.

Initial resistance now stands back at the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 decline at 97.87 backed by the 2011 parallel (red)- a breach there would shift the focus towards the slope extending off the 2017 high around the 99-handle. Look for initial support along the September trendline (blue) / April lows around ~96.75 with a break / close below confluence support around the yearly open at 96.14 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway here. Subsequent support objectives at the yearly lows at 95.03 & the 38.2% retracement at 94.51.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: A reversal in the US Dollar Index has taken price back towards multi-month slope support – watch the weekly close. A break lower would expose key confluence support at 96.14- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a move towards the lower parallel near 96.70s. The possibility of a near-term exhaustion rebound remains heading into NFPs while above this threshold. Ultimately a larger recovery should prove corrective and may offer more favorable entries targeting a break lower.I’ll publish an updated DXY scalp setup once we get further clarity in near-term price action.

---

Key US Data Releases

US Data Releases - US Dollar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-tg.html?ref-author=Boutros

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES