We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Just a reminder, the White House's deadline on the auto tariff decision is due today after the extension. Stay on Twitter watch. Trump seems to like make big calls shortly after the close...
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (OCT) due at 21:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 48.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-14
  • RT @ABehsudi: Commerce is expected to extend a limited, temporary waiver for blacklisted firm Huawei, notwithstanding any last-minute direc…
  • RT @zerohedge: POMO is temporary, they said. It's just a mid-September tax payment, they said https://t.co/nBeHAZ9kJc
  • $MJ: Pot stock market caps going 'up in smoke' https://t.co/q3v88TVO93
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.19% Germany 30: 0.11% US 500: 0.02% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/TtF93qmxed
  • Oh, team building exercises. I'm sure that brought Knot and Holzmann around to dropping concerns about diminishing returns on negative rates and extreme monetary policy... https://t.co/5lpgsAJtbC
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -1.15% #BITCOINCASH -2.47% #ETHEREUM -1.87% #RIPPLE -1.87% #LITECOIN -2.84%
  • RT @CNBCnow: BREAKING: The 50 attorneys general investigating Google are preparing to expand their antitrust investigation beyond the compa…
  • remaining operations will include 14-day with $35b offering
Oil Weekly Price Outlook: Crude Crashes into Fibonacci Support

Oil Weekly Price Outlook: Crude Crashes into Fibonacci Support

2019-06-13 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude Oil is setting a clean monthly opening-range just above key Fibonacci support at six-month lows. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the decline may be vulnerable here near-term and we’re on the lookout for possible exhaustion. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly Outlook

Notes: In my last Crude Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, “A break below the monthly range lows / confluence support leaves the risk lower heading into the close of the May trade.” – Three weeks later and oil prices have plummeted more than 25% from the yearly highs with crude testing the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 / 2019 highs.

A weekly close below the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 51.60 is needed to fuel the next leg lower targeting the weekly reversal close / slope confluence at ~ 48.24. Interim resistance stands at 55.21 backed by 56.69 - Ultimately a breach above the highlighted confluence zone at 60.06/47 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The crude breakdown has taken oil prices into secondary support targets here and leaves the immediate short-bias at risk near-term while above 51.60. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / be on the lookout for possible exhaustion. Look for failure ahead of 56.70 IF prices are indeed heading lower on this stretch.Review my Top 2019 Trading Opportunities for a look at the longer-term Crude Oil outlook.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil- the ratio stands at +2.53 (71.7% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since May 22nd; price has moved 15.3% lower since then
  • Long positions are6.2% higher than yesterday and 2.7% higher from last week
  • Short positions are4.8% higher than yesterday and 22.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude Oil prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.