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New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi 2019 Range Compression

New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi 2019 Range Compression

2019-02-27 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Kiwi has continued to consolidate against the US Dollar with the 2019 opening-range of nearly 3% still intact heading into the close of February trade. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand vs US Dollar Weekly

Notes: In last month’s NZD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that Kiwi continues to trade within the confines of a broad January opening-range and while I do think the bigger move ultimately is higher, the threat remains for another test of the lows before resumption.” Since then, price has carved out an even clearer range between 6707-6941and the focus heading into the close of the month is on a break of this range.

A downside break / close below this range targets the 61.8% retracement of the October range at 6633 backed by the 2018 low-week close at 6506. Weekly resistance stands at 6931/41- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2018 range and the 200-week moving average. A rally surpassing this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price targeting critical resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement at 7050 and the 2018 open / pitchfork resistance at 7094-7100.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The Kiwi range continues and the longer this holds, the bigger the break. From a trading standpoint, price is now coming off the range highs and until we clear 6707-6941 – the medium-term outlook remains neutral. That said, ultimately a topside breach and test of the upper parallels is favored.I’ll publish an updated NZD/USD Technical Outlook once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

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NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.02 (49.5% of traders are long) – neutralreading
  • Long positions are6.3% lower than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

New Zealand / US Economic Data Calendar - NZD/USD

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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