Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi Coils into January Range

New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi Coils into January Range

What's on this page

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The New Zealand Dollar is up nearly 0.4% against the US Dollar this week as price continues to contract within the January opening-range. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar, NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: Kiwi started the year with a quick defense of the 61.8% retracement` of the October advance at 6632 (intraday spike low registered at 6586) before rebounding sharply with price testing monthly open support this week at 6705. The late-2018 advance looks to have taken the shape of a 5-wave advance off the lows and suggests this pullback from the December high may be a correction. That said, the focus would be for a new low before resumption higher towards broader pitchfork resistance (blue).

Initial weekly resistance stands with the parallel (red) backed by the 52-week moving average at ~6880s and the 50% retracement of the 2018 range at 6931- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting the 200-week moving average at ~6960s and the key 61.8% retracement at 7050.

Critical support remains with the October slope line / 6632 with a break / close below exposing subsequent support objectives at the 2018 low-week close at 6507 and the 100% extension / 2015 LWC at 6453/65- both levels of interest for exhaustion / long-entries IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Kiwi continues to trade within the confines of a broad January opening-range and while I do think the bigger move ultimately is higher, the threat remains for another test of the lows before resumption. Form a trading standpoint, the focus is on a test of the monthly lows – IF price can stabilize above 6632, look for a breach above the range highs to fuel the next leg higher in New Zealand Dollar.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.33 (-57.0% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 9.4% higher than yesterday and 22.9% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 6.5% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

NZD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide !

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES