Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook: ECB on Deck - Euro Levels to Know

EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook: ECB on Deck - Euro Levels to Know

What's on this page

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro has continued to hold above a key support barrier we’ve been tracking for the past few months and we’re looking for a reaction heading into the ECB interest rate decision this week. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart heading into the close of the year. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Please add a description for the image.

Notes: In my previous EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that, “Euro has responded to long-term support and keeps the focus weighted to the topside while above 1.13,” – a level defined by the November 2016 high and the 200-week moving average. Price has continued to respect this threshold and on weekly close basis and we’re looking for the break of this multi-week consolidation structure for guidance.

Initial weekly resistance stands with the September high-week reversal close at 1.1603 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1728. A break below 1.13 would keep the focus on the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 advance at 1.1186 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The monthly opening range has taken shape just above confluence support and we’re look for the break for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the broader short-bias remains at risk while above this level and for now, I’ll be on the lookout for possible price exhaustion on a move towards 1.13 again. I’ll publish an updated EUR/USD scalp report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.1 (52.4% of traders are long) – neutral reading.
  • Traders have remained net-long since November 23rd; price has moved 0.2% higher since then
  • Long positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 17.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 8.0% higher than yesterday and 9.7% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

    See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

    Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

    Please add a description for the image.

    Economic Calendar – for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

    Previous Weekly Technical Charts

    Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

    --- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

    Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.