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EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Euro Reversal Rips into Resistance

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Euro Reversal Rips into Resistance

2018-11-19 18:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro has rallied more than 2% against the US Dollar since the monthly / yearly lows registered last week with the advance now targeting the first test of resistance. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In my previous EUR/USD Weekly Technical Perspective we stated that we were looking for exhaustion into the 1.13-handle where the November 2016 swing high converges on the 200-week moving average. Price registered an intra-week low at 1.1215 on building divergence before recovering sharply into the close of the week. Note that a weekly close below 1.13 was never resisted and as such, keeps our focus in price higher while above this threshold.

Initial resistance is eyed at the sliding parallel (red) extending off the January 2017 highs around ~1.1470s backed by the September outside weekly-reversal close at 1.1603. Ultimately a breach above channel resistance / 38.2% retracement at 1.1728 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader up-trend.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Euro has responded to long-term support and keeps the focus weighted to the topside while above 1.13. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness targeting a breach of the parallel with such a scenario targeting 1.1603 and beyond. I’ll publish an updated EUR/USD Scalp Report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.09 (47.8% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since September 24th
  • Long positions are2.5% lower than yesterday and 31.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 32.1% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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