USD/CAD Weekly Price Outlook: US Dollar Rallies to Fresh Yearly Highs

2018-12-06 17:30:00

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USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart
USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases
Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Updated weekly technicals on USD/CAD – rally testing key resistance barrier at 1.3375-1.3435
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In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The US Dollar has rallied to fresh yearly highs against the Canadian Dollar with and weekly close above near-term resistance is needed to keep the long-bias viable. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart heading into the close of the year.

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USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: USD/CAD is trading into a key resistance zone at 1.3375-1.3435- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2016 decline, the June swing highs and the 2017 yearly open. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable with such a scenario targeting key confluence resistance at 1.3628/86 where the 61.8% retracement and the 1.618% extension converge on the 2017 high-week close. Key support rests at 1.3100/30 with a break below the 2012 trendline / 200-week moving average around ~1.30 needed to invalidate the long-bias.

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Bottom line:The advance is vulnerable near-term while below 1.3435. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. For now, our focus will be on the weekly close. I’ll publish an updated USD/CAD scalp report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

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USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -4.69 (17.6% of traders are long) – bullish reading.
Traders have remained net-short since October 9th; price has moved 4.7% higher since then
Long positions are 6.3% lower than yesterday and 33.5% lower from last week
Short positions are 25.9% higher than yesterday and 59.6% higher from last week
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!