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AUD/JPY Weekly Technical Outlook: Price Testing Trend Resistance

AUD/JPY Weekly Technical Outlook: Price Testing Trend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Australian Dollar has rallied more than 4.7% against the Japanese Yen since the yearly lows registered last month with price testing a critical resistance barrier around the 83-handle. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/JPY weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Notes: AUD/JPY is trading just below a critical resistance confluence at 83.00/05 – this region is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2017 decline & the 52-week moving average converge and converges on the median-line of the pitchfork extending off the 2016 / 2017 highs (blue) and former trendline support (red). Note that a resistance trigger in weekly RSI has already broken and highlights a change in the momentum profile.

A topside breach / close above this threshold exposes the 50% retracement / 2017 open at 84.25/44 with the 200-week moving average just higher at ~85.00. Support remains at the 61.8% retracement / low-week close at 76.26/29 and is backed by pitchfork support. Weakness beyond this threshold would likely fuel accelerated losses towards 76.26 and beyond.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: AUD/JPY has continued to trade within the August / September range and we’re looking for the break for guidance. Price is testing the upper bounds of this region and a breach / close above 83.00/05 is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable. From a trading standpoint, ideal scenario would see prices pullback for more favorable entries while above the March lows at 80.55. I’ll publish an updated AUD/JPY Scalp Report once we get further clarity on near-term price action. Keep in mind we have the release of Australia employment figures on tap later tonight.

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AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment

AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/JPY - the ratio stands at -1.01 (49.7% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are2.1% higher than yesterday and 2.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 18.3% lower than yesterday and 12.6% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant AUD/JPY Data Releases

AUD/JPY Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar – for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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