News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed's Kashkari says he wanted stronger commitment to zero interest rates, wanted the Fed to vow to wait on rate hikes until core inflation is at 2% for roughly a year $USD
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (AUG) due at 13:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 6.2% Previous: 6.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • 🇨🇦 Retail Sales MoM (JUL) Actual: 0.6% Expected: 1% Previous: 23.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.23%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.01%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/YEUwBPYeOK
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.37% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.25% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Q0GhFOje4u
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Retail Sales MoM (JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 1% Previous: 23.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 CBR Press Conference due at 12:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • US will ban people from downloading TikTok and We Chat from the 20th of September
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/7eR2z8LA3V
  • Libya's Haftar says the army has decided to resume output of oil #OOTT
EUR/USD Range in Focus Ahead of NFP Report, ECB Meeting

EUR/USD Range in Focus Ahead of NFP Report, ECB Meeting

2018-12-06 17:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

EUR/USD holds a narrow range after failing to test the 2018-low (1.1216), and the exchange rate may continue to consolidate ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as Federal Reserve officials strike a less-hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy.

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate-hike later this month, recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appear to be swaying the monetary policy outlook as the central bank head shows little interest in extended hiking-cycle.

Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the FOMC, struck a similar tone as ‘there are risks on the horizon that we need to be very attentive to,’ and the committee may continue to change its tune in 2019 especially as Mr. Williams argues that ‘we’re well-positioned to adjust our path of interest rates if the economic data disappoint.’

Image of fed interest rate forecast

With that said, Chairman Powell & Co. may continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.75% to 3.00% at the last meeting for 2018, and the FOMC appears to be on track to conclude its hiking-cycle next year as the central bank shows a greater willingness to tolerate above-target inflation.

In turn, updates to the NFP report may do little to influence the monetary policy outlook as Average Hourly Earnings are expected to hold steady at 3.1% per annum in November, and signs of limited wage growth may produce headwinds for the greenback on the back of waning interest-rate expectations.

Nevertheless, the diverging paths for monetary policy fosters a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to carry the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) into 2019, with the Euro susceptible to a dovish policy statement as the Governing Council remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

Near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains uneventful as it carves a narrowing range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator appears to be stuck in a wedge/triangle formation. In turn, the 1.1510 (38.2% expansion) region may keep EUR/USD capped over the coming days, with the first area of support coming in around the 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) area.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for the Euro

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES