We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY #UKelection2019 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/07/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-GBPCAD-Outlook-as-UK-Election-Looms.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/iuILHYczJ7
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/WlEFlluGfZ #tradingstyle https://t.co/TkMtJQKatx
  • By issuing debt denominated in $USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/xV9urXXf48
  • What are some risk trading management techniques? Find out: https://t.co/RShdlDz9RA #tradingstyle https://t.co/M3ASPIHAep
  • #Dow Jones stages impressive recovery on a firm NFP report. #FTSE 100 eyes UK general election. Get your equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/o28UcG6N3l https://t.co/SwGAaFCFND
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/f4y1FOOZnM #tradingstyle https://t.co/x5HgYopWc5
  • The USD may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/XnDITaDOox https://t.co/A480uVMqF2
  • What tools does the ECB have left to stimulate the Eurozone? Where is the #Euro heading? Find out from Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Claus Vistesen only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast hosted by @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/DXlDH5Cp9e
  • The price of oil extends the advance from the October low as #OPEC and its allies pledge to take additional steps to balance the energy market. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/llGq8yPFH4 #OOTT https://t.co/1OCVOIrK98
FX Setups for the Week of February 18, 2019

FX Setups for the Week of February 18, 2019

2019-02-15 19:01:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
Share:

FX Setups for the Week of February 18, 2019

- DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts are available directly from the following link: DailyFX Trading Guides, Q1 Forecasts.

- For trading ideas, please check out our Trading Guides. And if you’re looking for something more interactive in nature, please check out our DailyFX Live webinars.

- If you’d like more color around any of the setups below, join in our live DailyFX webinars each week, set for Tuesday and Thursday at 1PM Eastern Time. You can sign up for each of those sessions from the below link:

Tuesday: Tuesday, 1PM ET

Thursday: Thursday 1PM ET

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Next week brings a US market holiday on Monday, and after that markets will face a relatively quiet economic calendar with only a handful of high-impact events. This will be prime opportunity for US Dollar bulls to show their hands, as the post-FOMC run in the currency has driven prices higher throughout the month of February. Below, I look at a series of setups on either side of the US Dollar with the aim of devising strategy for the week ahead.

Bearish GBP/USD Biases on Hold Below 1.2960

The fundamental backdrop around the British Pound remains very unclear on a number of issues, key of which is a very uncertain backdrop around Brexit. And while volatility has become a bit more commonplace in the British Pound, traders will likely want to continue to focus on shorter-term approaches, looking for swing trades off of support or resistance levels with the aim of limiting the amount of time exposed to swings and turns in GBP.

This week marked a continuation of GBP/USD’s reversal of January strength. After the currency perched above the 1.3200 level three weeks ago, sellers have re-grasped control; and this week was marked by a continuation of lower-lows and lower-highs in the pair. Along the way, a big support zone that runs from 1.2828-1.2850 was taken-out after a quick bounce set a weekly swing high at 1.2959. This can keep focus on a deeper support zone that runs from 1.2671-1.2735. On the resistance side of the coin, the 1.2920 level remains of interest, as this is the 38.2% retracement of the January move, and this is a level that offered a bit of support when prices in the pair were on their way down, as looked at last week.

GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Bearish USDCHF: Reversal Potential on Hold Below 1.0100

It’s been an abnormal week in USDCHF that started off in a peculiar manner. Shortly after the open of this week’s trade, a ‘mini flash crash’ showed in the Franc, and that propelled prices in USDCHF up to the 1.0096 resistance level, albeit temporarily. After prices pushed back to parity, the rest of the week saw buyers push prices back up to 1.0096, with sellers continually furnishing supply to hold resistance at this level.

USDCHF Two-Hour Price Chart

usdchf usd/chf two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this stage, a continued hold of resistance in this area can keep the door open for reversal strategies in the pair. I had looked at this market in the Thursday webinar, and that theme remains as resistance has continued to hold in this area. Traders looking for short-side USD strategies or for those playing a reversal of the bullish move in USDCHF, a return to parity could remain as a targeted objective, after which break-even stops could be utilized to look for a deeper reversal move.

USDCHF Weekly Price Chart

usdchf usd/chf weekly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Bullish EURUSD on Hold Above 1.1215

This is somewhat related to the above theme in USDCHF, as EURUSD remains very near a longer-term support zone that’s, at least thus far, proving difficult to break. This support zone first came back into play in November of last year; and it’s held multiple tests in the four months since.

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On a near-term basis, selling has started to slow as the bottom of that zone has come closer, and this has led into a shorter-term falling wedge pattern. This will often be approached with the aim of looking for bullish reversals, as the evidence of sellers slowing at the lows may prelude and eventual shift in order flow. This can keep the door open for the longer-term range pattern in the pair to fill-in, with stops investigated below support and initial targets set to the mid-point of the recent range or higher.

EURUSD Hourly Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Bullish USDJPY on Hold Above 109.67

This week saw USDJPY breakout from a big zone of resistance that runs from 109.67-110.00. That resistance zone first came back into play just a couple of weeks into the New Year, showing a stark contrast to the selling in the pair that populated the first few days of USDJPY trade in 2019. But, after almost a month of resistance tests in that area, buyers pushed up to fresh highs shortly after this week’s open, and that theme has remained prominent ever since.

This morning saw a quick pullback to a short-term support level at 110.30, and that has held thus far. But the pair may need a bigger pullback before the longer-term bullish trend is ready to continue, and a support test at that prior zone of well-defined resistance can open the door for such a theme.

USDJPY Four-Hour Price Chart

usdjpy usd/jpy four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.