FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDCHF and the US Dollar
The US Dollar is continuing to face resistance around the 97.20-97.30 area on the charts, coming in after fresh 2019 highs were set earlier this morning. The current pullback has found follow-through support around the prior resistance point at the 97.00 level; but given the inability of buyers to push above 97.30, a deeper retracement may soon show to re-test supports at 96.68, 96.47, or perhaps even 96.30. This could be used to support reversal setups for USD-bears; and for those looking on the long side of the American currency, there could be areas of interest on that theme, as well. In this webinar, I looked at a series of setups across major currency pairs, then moving on to markets such as EUR/JPY, Gold, Oil, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.
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US Dollar: Short-Term Topping Potential as Resistance Holds 97.20-97.28
The post-FOMC bullish run in the US Dollar has continued through this week, and the Tuesday pullback was left as relatively shallow: Buyers returned at the 96.68 area of prior resistance and pushed right back up to fresh highs. But once prices got there, bulls appeared to lose motivation, and prices soon scaled-back for a re-test of the 97.00 area of prior resistance. After another trip to resistance and then back down to support, it looks increasingly as if Dollar-bulls may need more of a pause before the theme of strength might be ready for continuation.
On the support side of the US Dollar, 96.68, 96.47 and 96.30 all remain of interest for bullish plays. On the resistance side of the matter, 97.70 looms large, as the Double Top formation from November/December peaked out around that area.
US Dollar Eight Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
EURUSD Holds Range Support, Short-Term Bottoming Potential
EURUSD continues to hold support in the longer-term range that’s been present over the past few months. This can keep the door open for bullish strategies in the pair for those looking at short-USD exposure, looking for prices to revert to the resistance side of that range; and that exists from 1.1448-1.1500.
EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
On a shorter-term basis, the big question in EURUSD is whether a low forms off of the 1.1250 psychological level. Higher-highs and lows have been showing since that price came into play in the overnight session.
EURUSD 30-Minute Price Chart: 1.1250 Support
Chart prepared by James Stanley
GBPUSD Slides Below 1.2828, Next Support in View
GBPUSD finally broke-below the 1.2828 marker after finding support there earlier in the week. At this point, traders will likely continue to face challenges on the driver-side of the matter as Brexit remains a rather messy situation. This means that traders would likely want to limit the amount of time exposed to shifts in that theme, instead favoring short-term strategies with swing trades off of support and/or resistance levels.
In GBP/USD at the moment, the big zone of longer-term support lurks from 1.2671-1.2735; and that prior support level of 1.2828 could remain as potential resistance.
GBPUSD Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
USDCAD Touches Above 1.3325 Resistance
The theme of weakness in USDCAD took a backseat today when CAD weakness propelled USDCAD above 1.3325, albeit temporarily. For those looking at short-side scenarios in the pair, a hold below 1.3361-1.3385 can keep the door open on that theme. For those looking at strength strategies in the pair, shorter-term timeframes can highlight the build of higher-highs and higher-lows.
USDCAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
USDJPY Pulls Back from 111.00
On the long side of the US Dollar, USDJPY has been interesting this week as the pair broke-out to a fresh 2019 high. That move continued, even through the Tuesday pullback, and fresh highs were established above the 111.00 handle in the overnight session. But, as discussed earlier this morning, the issue is the lack of continuation: Meaning that a pullback may be in order before that bullish theme is ready for continuation. Support potential could be looked for at 110.31, or that prior area of resistance that runs from 109.67-110.00.
USDJPY Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
USDCHF Reversal Themes Nearing?
As US Dollar strength has taken over this year, USDCHF saw a clean topside move that propelled prices back above the parity handle. And so far this week, a resistance level of note has come into play around 1.0096, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2016 – February 2018 major move. After thwarting bullish advances on both Wednesday and Thursday of this week, it appears that bears are pushing a bit-lower on the chart, highlighting the possibility of reversal in the pair.
USDCHF Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
AUDUSD: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
AUDUSD price action over the past couple of days has been fairly quiet, with indecision showing along with prices bound between recent support of .7075 and resistance at .7125-.7150. As discussed in the webinar, if having to choose a bias, the long side may be attractive simply given the proximity to the .7000 big figure, which has helped to elicit support over a few different instances in the recent past. But, traders are going to likely want to let price show more of a directional component before looking to implement such.
AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
NZDUSD: Nearing Resistance
This week’s RBNZ rate decision helped NZDUSD rally off of a key support level at .6717, and prices have pushed back up to .6850. But of note is the series of lower-highs that have printed on longer-term charts dating back to last year. Will buyers be able to take out the February high around .6940? If not, the door may soon open for reversal strategies in the pair.
NZDUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
Gold: Descending Triangle to Open Door for Longer-Term Support Test?
It’s been an impressive 2019 so far for Gold prices, especially considering the performance of the US Dollar. Prices in Gold have run up to fresh nine month highs; but bulls haven’t yet been able to make much ground above the $1325 level. But – a series of short-term lower-highs combined with horizontal resistance around $1302 has built in a short-term descending triangle. And while this may not necessarily be something indicative enough to forecast a brute force reversal, it could open the door to a deeper retracement, potentially bringing back into the picture support levels around $1290, $1286 or perhaps even $1280, each of which could be looked to by bulls looking to establish exposure on that theme.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
Dow Holds Key Resistance – Will Buyers Respond at Support
I had looked at this theme yesterday in the technical article on the Dow, and the resistance zone of note has thus far held the advance. The big question at this point is whether buyers come in to offer support in order to continue that bullish theme.
DJIA: Dow Jones Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
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--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
