Gold Price Latest: XAU/USD Pushing Higher, Treasury Yields Remain Volatile, Jobs Reports Near
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Gold Price Analysis, Price, and Chart
- Gold is trading on either side of a prior resistance turned support level.
- ADP, US non-farm payrolls near – increased volatility heading into the weekend?
Short-dated US Treasury yields are being pulled one way then another with the US one-month T-bill seeing wild swings over the past few sessions. The 14-day Average True Range - a volatility measure - is at a multi-year high level and this is adding to the current unease in the gold space. Yesterday ultra-short-end US bill yields fell sharply on news that the US debt deal had passed through the House with the bill now off to the Senate for approval. Investors had been demanding higher yields to compensate for a higher US default risk, and this is now fading as a deal nears. The table has turned today with bill yields moving higher as investors sell their low-risk US government debt – forcing yields higher – as risk markets come back into favor. This move now looks under pressure, adding to the multi-year volatility seen in the market.
US One-Month Treasury Yield – June 1, 2023
Ahead today and tomorrow, two important US labor reports. After Wednesday’s hot JOLTs report, all eyes will be on today’s ADP National Employment Report (12:15 GMT) and Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll Report (12:30 GMT). Both have the heft to move US dollar rate expectations and gold.
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Gold is trading above a prior level of resistance turned support around $1,960/oz. but today’s move higher is not looking overly convincing and could easily reverse lower again. Looking ahead to next week, gold traders will likely have a much clearer idea of direction when the US debt ceiling has passed and the US jobs report are fully digested.
Gold Price Daily Chart – June 1, 2023
Chart via TradingView
Retail Traders Remain Long
Retail trader data show 68.63% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.19 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.36% higher than yesterday and 4.74% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.11% lower than yesterday and 6.33% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.
What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
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