The US Dollar broadly outperformed against its major counterparts in the third quarter of 2023. Relatively speaking, it performed the best against the British Pound, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan fared better.
A key theme throughout the third quarter was the evolving landscape of long-term Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations. At most, the central bank may hike rates one more time this year. But, that is not where the focus has been.
Instead, financial markets have been increasingly pricing in a higher terminal rate. In other words, the tone set by Chair Jerome Powell and company has been alluding to a scenario where interest rates stay higher for longer.
That is why we have seen a more aggressive rise in the 10-year Treasury yields as opposed to the 2-year rate. In response, the US Dollar pushed higher. This also pressured lower gold prices. Crude oil prices continued climbing, perhaps a reflection of more robust growth expectations.
Sentiment started to give way towards the end of Q3. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all finished in the red. But, pronounced gains during the first 2 quarters mean equities are still on track to finish in the green this year. Could this change in Q4?
How Markets Performed – Q3 2023
Forecasts:
British Pound Q4 Technical Forecast: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
This quarterly outlook provides an in-depth analysis of GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY, focusing on price action dynamics. It delves into critical technical factors that are poised to influence market direction in the coming months.
Australian Dollar Q4 Fundamental Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on hold since June and China’s economic woes continuing, the Australian dollar exhibits few bullish drivers - which opens up the possibility for narrow range trading at suppressed levels.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Price Action Remains Choppy Heading into Q4
This article is dedicated to examining the technical side of Bitcoin in Q4. For a complete understanding of the fundamental outlook and the pivotal drivers in Q4, download DailyFX's all-inclusive fourth-quarter trading guide.
Euro Q4 Fundamental Forecast: EUR/USD in Peril on Growing Economic Risks
This article is dedicated to examining euro’s fundamental outlook. It offers an exhaustive analysis of EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY, providing insights into the pivotal factors that could determine their performance in the fourth quarter.
Crude Oil Q4 Technical Forecast: How High Can it Go?
Crude oil technical analysis shows Q4 could take prices towards the $100 mark but remain around overbought levels which could limit upside.
Japanese Yen Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Kick-off, Year-End Revival Chance
This article is dedicated to examining the yen’s fundamental outlook. It offers an exhaustive analysis of the Japanese currency, discussing major risk factors that could dictate the trend in the fourth quarter.
Equities Q4 Fundamental Outlook: Fed Rate Outlook to Weigh on Stocks
US equities defied logic for the first half of 2023 but has shown signs of concern more recently as the Fed makes its final policy adjustments before attempting to dismount from its aggressive rate hiking campaign.
US Dollar Technical Forecast: DXY Sets the Stage for Further Resilience in Q4?
The US Dollar outperformed in the third quarter consistently, obtaining a minimum of 9 weeks of consecutive gains. How is the technical landscape shaping up for the fourth quarter?
--- Article Body Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com
--- Individual Articles Composed by DailyFX Team Members
