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US Dollar Exhaustion Trade– Pending USD Setup into the July Open

US Dollar Exhaustion Trade– Pending USD Setup into the July Open

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Is the Dollar Still a Buy?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed just ahead of slope support last week on building momentum divergence. So is a near-term high in place? The verdict is still out but the risk heading into the start of the month is for a larger correction and we’re tracking the majors for entry early in the week. Keep in mind U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of the Fourth of July with heavy event risk waiting into the close of the week.

Key Levels in Focus

DXY – Look for resistance into 95.15/32- close below 94.20/27 needed to validate reversal

EUR/USD – Initial support into the Low-day close at 1.16- Key support still 1.1554. Initial resistance 1.1727

GBP/USD – Still looking for exhaustion / long entries while above Friday’s low- key resistance 1.3311

USD/JPY – Looking for an exhaustion high ahead of 111.62. Initial support at the 200-day moving average (~110.15).

USDCAD Looking for short re-entries while below 1.3258- Break below 1.31 needed to suggest larger correction is underway.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Highlighting this week’s economic calendar will be the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision later tonight and Friday’s release of the June US Non-Farm Payroll and Canadian employment figures. In this webinar we review updated technical setups on DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD), NZD/USD, EUR/NZD and EUR/JPY.

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KeyEvent Risk This Week

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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