News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lqpXwWjVFt
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/CrpXuYgfRO
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/VzEbQn8blk
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/ETF52Q2sLz
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/AXZxK8Abrh
  • Global stock markets may see turbulent volatility if darkening clouds over Washington’s relations with Beijing turn into a geopolitical storm. Which assets will be the lifeboat? Find out here:https://t.co/RkFI6qAyik https://t.co/9Ppa4d48Ql
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/e0liqVDzw6
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major peers, but there is room for a near-term climb that wouldn’t necessarily overturn a bearish technical bias. USD/JPY is eyeing support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AEnQCXnwAL https://t.co/tuq7DDF3jE
  • Protests in Colombia may continue to pressure the Peso, but surging commodity prices and a weaker Greenback could curb USD/COP gains. Get your market update here:https://t.co/vcVH75xuKI https://t.co/kEvbsagB4a
  • Money never sleeps.... https://t.co/mAkpWd2M3O
EURUSD Attracted to 1.2350 while USDJPY Maintains Bullish Posture

EURUSD Attracted to 1.2350 while USDJPY Maintains Bullish Posture

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

The Elliott Wave analysis for EURUSD and USDJPY shows a higher probability move towards USD strength.

The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from April 9, 2018.

Elliott Wave Analysis for EURUSD

Since January 2018 we have been anticipating that a three year expanded flat pattern is ending and that a multi-month high hangs around the corner. On March 19, we established a pending order to short on a EURUSD break down at 1.2153 that has yet to trigger. We will continue with the pending order so long as EURUSD is below 1.2556.

Last week, we saw a temporary break of the red upward sloping trend line. This hints at a weak market. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, we can also identify a complete bearish impulse wave that began March 27 and ended on April 6. This bearish impulse wave sports alternation between waves ‘2’ and ‘4’ as well as an ending diagonal pattern in wave ‘5’.

Elliott Wave ending diagonal patterns typically retrace swiftly back to their origination. The beginning of this ending diagonal occurred at 1.2345. This price zone is also shielded by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2348. Therefore, this price zone near 1.2350 may act like a magnet to attract prices up towards this level.

Elliott Wave chart for EURUSD April 9, 2018.

EURUSD Sentiment Analysis

EURUSD sentiment has continued to increase from last week’s -1.4 to the current live reading near -1.3. Early today it was even higher at -1.2. Since sentiment is a contrarian signal, this increase in the reading is a clue about a falling EURUSD. If EURUSD does work down towards 1.2153 we would like to see continued evidence of sentiment shifting up higher than -1.3 and that would be a bearish signal.

If a trader is unwilling to wait for a more conservative entry at the 1.2153 break out level, then they could consider a short entry in the 1.2330-1.2380 price zone. If entered in this upper price zone, it may be best to probe the market with a small trade entry rather than risking the full trade size. Risk to the near term sell off can be placed just above the March 27 high near 1.2480.

USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY has started a new trend on March 25 with an impulse wave. According to Elliott Wave Theory, we are anticipating another wave of similar size. The preferred wave count at the moment is that this may bottom soon for a fifth and final wave higher.

I have highlighted a price zone near 106.66 as a danger zone for the bulls. If price breaks below this level, the near term bullish picture is negated and USDJPY has a high probability pattern of reaching 106.10.

So long as USDJPY is holding above 106.66, then we can anticipate a fifth and final wave higher.

USDJPY Elliott Wave intraday chart April 9, 2018.

USDJPY sentiment has fallen from last week’s lofty levels and currently rests at +1.8. This fall in sentiment is a reflection of an increase in the number of short traders coupled with a decrease in the number of long traders. This could be a subtle shift below the surface and if sentiment continues to fall, could signal higher prices for USDJPY. Keep an eye on the IG live client sentiment reading.

Elliott Wave Theory FAQs

What are Elliott Wave impulse waves?

According to Elliott Wave Theory, the market moves five waves in the direction of the near term trend followed by a three wave counter trend wave. An impulse wave is one of two types of motive waves that denotes trend direction. Therefore, if we see a bearish impulse waveform, then after a three-wave counter trend wave, we can anticipate at least one more bearish motive wave.

For those Elliott Wave technicians looking for further study, read about our expert tips in our beginners and advanced trading guides.

After reviewing the guides above, be sure to follow future Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action.

What is the biggest mistake forex trader make?

Regardless of the style of analysis, many traders do lose money because they do not take the time to study the market and the effect of leverage. At DailyFX, we have studied millions of live trades and boiled our study down into a Traits of Successful Traders guide. You will find how leverage and human nature affects our trading so you can be better prepared for the next correction.

Elliott Wave Theory can be applied to a variety of highly liquid markets. FX is one of my favorite markets to apply the Elliott Wave principle. Learn more about trading FX with this guide specifically designed for you.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy Wagner is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. Jeremy provides Elliott Wave analysis on key markets as well as Elliott Wave educational resources. Read more of Jeremy’s Elliott Wave reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Jeremy and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your Elliott Wave count as well.

Discuss these markets with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

To receive additional articles from Jeremy via email, join Jeremy’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES