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FX Market Scenarios for USD Strength Continuation

FX Market Scenarios for USD Strength Continuation

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

The U.S. Dollar remains bid as traders have continued to show-up at higher-low support after the bullish breakout of two weeks ago. How might Forex markets price-in an extended run of USD-strength after the back-breaking down-trend that started the year?

Talking Points:

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- We started off by looking at the U.S. Dollar, which has continued to hold higher-low support after the ECB-fueled bullish breakout from two weeks ago. We discussed this situation in greater depth in this morning’s Market Talk article entitled, How Forex Markets Might Respond to a Continuation of USD Strength? Given that the primary culprit of this year’s USD-weakness was a strong Euro (which constitutes over 57% of the DXY index), and with that theme taking a backseat after the October ECB meeting – the door can be opened for further Greenback gains as the bearish move from earlier this year further digests.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which continues to show bearish tendencies after the ECB-fueled bearish breakout. Prices spent most of last week trickling-higher, eventually running into the under-side of a support zone that we’d been following that runs from 1.1679-1.1736. But, it was around Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday that price action in EUR/USD gave another check to that prior support, and when sellers came-in to push prices lower this confirmed the level as lower-high resistance. Given the veracity of the prior bullish trend, EUR/USD can pull back as far as the 1.1216 level while still retaining longer-term bullish tendencies. Until then, the door can be opened for short-side exposure. EUR/USD Sentiment is at -1.70 as of this writing, click here to access the IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

- We then looked at USD/JPY, which is still finding resistance around the 114.03 level. This is a Fibonacci level that’s helped to hold the highs in USD/JPY for around six months; but when price action opened this week, a quick test of those highs was met with sellers. This produced a bearish pin bar on the daily chart which would normally be attractive for short-side setups. But, as I shared, this was not a scenario in which I wanted to trade for a bearish reversal in USD/JPY, so that pin bar remained non-actionable. Instead, I want to look for support around 113.00 or, alternatively, let resistance finally break before looking to buy a higher-low. USD/JPY Sentiment is at -1.18 as of this writing, click here to access more.

- We then looked at GBP/USD, which is very messy. We talked about this technical setup in-depth in yesterday’s article entitled, The Cable Congestion Continues. The pair can be difficult to assign a directional bias at the moment, and I want to see a break below 1.2982 or a break above 1.3350 before doing so. GBP/USD Sentiment is at +1.2958, as of this writing.

- We then moved over to AUD/USD. The Analyst Pick for short AUD/USD from two weeks ago remains as active, and we looked at how the near-term range can be utilized with a bigger-picture trend-side bias to look for bearish continuation in the pair.

- USD/CHF is showing a range at the top of the trend. Similar to AUD/USD, we looked at trading the shorter-term range with a longer-term trend-side bias.

- USD/CAD looks interesting on the long side on longer-term charts, but the hourly is showing a bearish setup. I showed want I want to see before taking on long exposure in USD/CAD.

- EUR/JPY is back to support in the zone that runs from 131.71-132.05. This can open the door for topside plays in the pair.

- GBP/JPY is messy. And this is GBP/JPY, which has a tendency to be erratic anyways. Be careful until a clearer trend presents itself.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.