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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at macro markets after USD-strength started to show following last week’s FOMC rate decision. We also had a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen taking place at the time, and you’ll hear some running commentary around that in the early portion of this webinar.
- The first market we looked at was the U.S. Dollar. As we had written this morning, this recent move of strength appears to be corrective in nature as the longer-term bearish trend remains intact with no clear signs of abating. We looked at potential resistance around the 94.00 handle, and should prices break above this zone from 94.08-94.30, the bearish theme in USD no longer looks as attractive; and bulls can then cast targets towards 95.00 and then the big-picture Fibonacci level at 95.86.
- We then moved over to look at the Euro as one of the more interesting ways of fading this recent batch of USD-strength. EUR/USD is nearing a key zone of support that runs from 1.1685-1.1736. There’s also a trend-line around that area as we shared during the webinar, and this could further substantiate bullish plays should a deeper support test be in the cards.
- We then looked at GBP/USD, and we had published and updated technical report earlier in the day. GBP/USD is putting-in a bull-flag formation as a bearish channel has started to show near resistance. Prices have finally slid below the support area we were watching previously that had held-up for most of last week. We showed how a couple of additional levels of higher-low support could be generated, and support showing ahead of the confluent zone that runs from 1.3117-1.3187 could open the door for bullish continuation in the pair.
- We then looked at AUD/USD as a long-USD candidate. Aussie has underwent some change of recent, which appeared to start on September 21, right around a speech from RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe. Since then, the bears have been back, and while we’ve seen some USD-strength show against most major currencies, few have moved-lower as aggressively as the Australian Dollar has. This can open the door for short-side exposure, and a revisit of the zone from .7929-.7946 can open the door for lower-high resistance.
- We then looked at USD/CAD, which is continuing to work with a trend-line that had previously held the lows throughout 2013 and all the way into July of 2014. We had highlighted this trend-line as support just ahead of this month’s Bank of Canada rate decision; but as the BoC hiked, that trend-line gave way as sellers pushed prices lower. But over the past week, price action is now finding resistance on the under-side of this trend-line, giving the appearance of bearish continuation. Given that prices haven’t yet peeled lower, traders will likely want to wait until short-term price action begins to put in bearish indications, which can open the door to short-side continuation with targets cast towards prior lows around 1.2100.
- We then looked at USD/JPY, which continues to run within the longer-term zone of support/resistance that exists from 111.61-112.43. This zone contains multiple Fibonacci levels, and the top-side of this zone helped to set four days of resistance on the daily chart. We’re currently seeing support within this zone, but while this gyration has been taking place, a bull flag has begun to show. Also of interest if trading anything Yen-related – JPY can see considerable strength on further flares around the North Korean situation. Market risk aversion can spell a really strong Yen, and this is something that traders taking short-Yen exposure should keep in mind as this situation continues to develop.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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