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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at macro trends after today’s European Central Bank rate decision.
- At this morning’s ECB rate decision, Mario Draghi side-stepped the topic of QE taper, and while the bank did raise growth forecasts for 2017, they cut inflation forecasts for next year which is, in essence, a dovish move. Nonetheless, Euro strength continued to show, as we’ve seen for a large portion of 2017, as markets continue to try front-running what’s starting to feel like an inevitable exit from the bank’s massive stimulus program. The fact that this morning was unable to take out the prior high at 1.2070 opens the door for short-term, short-side exposure; but the general trend is higher here, and revisits to support are attractive for continuation of the longer-term bullish theme.
- GBP/USD has been resilient of late, and this can show quite well in the EUR/GBP spot rate. GBP/USD is testing a key Fibonacci level at 1.3117, which is the 38.2% retracement of the ‘Brexit move’ in the pair. A topside break above this level opens the door for bullish continuation. Next week brings the Bank of England, and this will likely be the next major driver for the British Pound.
- EUR/GBP looks a bit tricky at the moment. The daily chart is showing a not yet completed morning star formation, but applying the trend-channel that’s defined the pair’s bullish run since mid-April shows a bit of resistance at the mid-line. This is where the trap element may come into play, as that morning star isn’t quite as bullish considering how overbought the pair remains to be, combined with the touch of resistance off this morning’s highs. The level of .9000 is interesting for bullish exposure, if it comes into play, as we have yet to test this level for support after jumping-above last month.
- USD/CAD put in some fireworks yesterday after the Bank of Canada made the surprise move to hike rates. This broke the pair below a trend-line that’s been in play since 2012, and we haven’t seen much support show-up since then. With the U.S. Dollar remaining extremely weak, this could be a tough prospect of continuation. We looked at using the under-side of that trend-line for resistance plays for down-side continuation approaches, but this is a couple hundred pips away. During the Q&A we looked at a few tighter levels that could be used for more near-term bearish approaches.
- U.S. Dollar: DXY remains abysmally weak, coming off of another fresh 2.5 year low this morning during the ECB press conference. The only notable element of this weakness is how sellers appeared to dry up as we perched down to a new low, which is just another factor denoting how oversold the U.S. Dollar has become. If some bullish factors can show up, we may actually see some higher prices, but given that a major Federal Reserve decision is looming large on the calendar for two weeks away, we may have to wait for a little while for such an occurrence. Short-side continuation in USD should be approached tactically, focusing on currencies with strength, such as CAD or Euro, to take on that short-USD exposure.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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