Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Enjoy the recording? Join Paul Tuesday-Friday each week – for details, see the Webinar Calendar.

Today, to start we looked at the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it pushes back down to test last week’s key reversal created on Tuesday. With the ECB coming up tomorrow and the euro accounting for ~57% of the DXY we are at a pivotal spot. The thinking on this end is will we will see further weakness in the euro. We looked at a steadfast line of support on the 4-hr chart which must be broken first before more weakness can set in. USDCAD faces the BoC today, and short-term implied volatility suggests we could see a sizable move. The pair is trading at a trend-line rising up from 2012, and today could be a critical day for determining its fate for the foreseeable future.

GBPUSD continues to add to its bounce from the mid-12700s, and if we are to see a broader turn higher in USD this pair will need to show material weakness before rising up on the radar as a short. USDJPY is trying to hold support in the low 10800s and will need to start turning higher if it is to stage a bounce. Overall, the outlook here is murky.

A couple of cross-rates which have potentially rewarding opportunities are GBPNZD (holding old resistance as support) and GBPJPY (attempting to carve out a right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern). Confidence at this time is higher in the former set-up.

The importance of trading psychology can’t be understated. Check out this beginner’s guide – Building Confidence in Trading.

Gold continues to forge on into resistance levels etched out during the 2016 decline, with last year’s high at 1375 as the big level. We will continue to operate with a bullish outlook in the near-term as long as the rising channel it’s been in for several weeks continues to hold. Silver is crossing levels and also has a very similar channel (unsurprisingly). Crude oil is cruising towards a test of a major trend-line, viewed as a possible spot for it to turn lower from.

Equity indices continue to be a more difficult space to be in right now. The DAX is still trying to make a run at breaking the June trend-line which will bring the area around 12300 into focus (big resistance). Tomorrow’s ECB meeting could be a decider on its short-term fate should we see the euro make a big move. The FTSE is sagging back towards big support at 7300, it’s an important level to hold. The S&P 500 came off yesterday, but still giving the benefit of the doubt to the top-side.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.