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Today we discussed the pullback from trend-line resistance in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which as long as the index stays beneath this line of resistance the bias is for lower prices. Overall, the DXY could continue to range and perhaps at some point form a wedge, but that would be down the road. We’ll discuss at another time should it become relevant. On a weaker US dollar, we look for EURUSD to continue to bounce off trend-line support, while GBPUSD looks like it could have the greatest upside potential – near-term and long-term.
USDJPY has room to go before finding some support in the 10850/10750 area, a point of interest from the short-side arrives around 11000. The Yen cross-rates have sold off sharply and are or nearing support, depending on the cross. It looks late in the game to be shorting and risk is growing for a bounce to develop.
EURAUD is at an interesting cross-road of resistance and potential bearish price pattern developing. We looked at USDZAR, too, which is pulling back from a retest of the broken 2011 trend-line; we will be looking for short set-ups moving forward.
Gold had a big rally yesterday, negating its bearish reversal-day last week, with room now to run a bit higher to the downtrend line off the 2011 high. Silver is weaker and holding below intermediate-term resistance.
Crude oil still has room to go before finding resistance near 55, a development we discussed in yesterday’s commodities/equity indices webinar.
The DAX put in a thorough test of support yesterday, and as long as 12050 holds the market will maintain a neutral to bullish tone. U.S. indices tried to break lower yesterday but were able to reverse and hold support for now. The FTSE 100 is holding strong after testing the June trend-line. The Nikkei is weak and has a sloppy technical structure, we’re standing aside until a better look is presented.
For full technical considerations, please see the video above.
For a longer-term view on various markets discussed in this webinar, see our Q2 forecasts in our Trading Guides section.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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