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Fed Financial Stability Report: Asset Prices May Be Vulnerable if Risk Appetite Falls

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  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.98% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.60% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4u2cNfSmLn
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Federal Reserve Hints at Potential Declines in Asset Prices, Calls for Hedge Fund Transparency #Fed #FederalReserve #F…
  • Both EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are hovering near multi-year downtrend downtrends, while EUR/GBP may still have more room to the topside. Get your $EUR market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/2SYCKwz8hz https://t.co/tj6UQUDzRL
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 3.18% Gold: 1.61% Oil - US Crude: 0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mo9LS3teJl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 86.18%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/F4HwBZ2LvK
  • Fed says the markets are at vulnerable to dropping if risk appetite falls. To any normal person that is obvious. From the central bank that is a passive aggressively projecting a concern
  • Fed's Brainard: - Potential hedge fund threats need further transparency - Archegos demonstrates the limit of visibility on hedge fund risk
  • Fed Financial Stability Report: - In late 2020, major banks' credit lines to non-bank financial institutions rose, reaching new high of $1.6 trillion by year's end
  • Fed Financial Stability Report: - Broad range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large & sudden declines - Household debt is moderate relative to income
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.62% France 40: 0.57% FTSE 100: 0.40% Wall Street: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/afTqsdPKzv
Equity Indices & Commodities Trading Outlook: S&P 500, DAX, Gold, Crude Oil & More

Equity Indices & Commodities Trading Outlook: S&P 500, DAX, Gold, Crude Oil & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Paul conducts webinars Tuesday – Friday each week. For details and a full line-up of upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

In today’s webinar, we first took a look at the daily rejection bars in gold and silver from resistance and then the short-term time-frames for further indications. The expectation on this end is we will see further weakness develop, but first want to see gold trigger a pattern on the 4-hr before becoming too aggressive with shorts.

Copper continues to chop, and through the chop is coiling up towards a move. For now, though, we will pass until further clarity.

Crude oil has exceeded upside expectations from a triple-bottom off trend-line support. The rally looks a bit overdone at the moment, but isn’t up against any notable resistance yet. It is preferred it rallies a bit more before looking for a retracement. Should it dip, we will keep an eye on the 51.50 area and see if buyers don’t maybe step in around that area for a push up towards 55.

U.S. equity indices look vulnerable at this juncture on both a daily basis and when looking at intra-day time-frames. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow are providing the cleanest pictures, both sporting technical formations which could help provide overall clarity for the S&P 500. The level to watch in the Nasdaq 100 is 5400, a pretty meaningful spot. European indices are holding up relatively well, and look poised to move higher, but if the U.S. takes a meaningful leg lower this could quickly change. There are notable trend-lines to watch in the FTSE, DAX, and CAC 40; these could still hold even if the U.S. rolls over as long as the decline isn’t overly pervasive. A decline and solid hold of trend support could set these indices up well for longs later on.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above.

For a longer-term view on commodities and equity indices, see our Q2 forecasts in our Trading Guides section.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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