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Equity Indices & Commodities Trading Outlook: S&P 500, DAX, Gold, Crude Oil & More

Equity Indices & Commodities Trading Outlook: S&P 500, DAX, Gold, Crude Oil & More

2017-04-11 10:02:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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Paul conducts webinars Tuesday – Friday each week. For details and a full line-up of upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

In today’s webinar, we first took a look at the daily rejection bars in gold and silver from resistance and then the short-term time-frames for further indications. The expectation on this end is we will see further weakness develop, but first want to see gold trigger a pattern on the 4-hr before becoming too aggressive with shorts.

Copper continues to chop, and through the chop is coiling up towards a move. For now, though, we will pass until further clarity.

Crude oil has exceeded upside expectations from a triple-bottom off trend-line support. The rally looks a bit overdone at the moment, but isn’t up against any notable resistance yet. It is preferred it rallies a bit more before looking for a retracement. Should it dip, we will keep an eye on the 51.50 area and see if buyers don’t maybe step in around that area for a push up towards 55.

U.S. equity indices look vulnerable at this juncture on both a daily basis and when looking at intra-day time-frames. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow are providing the cleanest pictures, both sporting technical formations which could help provide overall clarity for the S&P 500. The level to watch in the Nasdaq 100 is 5400, a pretty meaningful spot. European indices are holding up relatively well, and look poised to move higher, but if the U.S. takes a meaningful leg lower this could quickly change. There are notable trend-lines to watch in the FTSE, DAX, and CAC 40; these could still hold even if the U.S. rolls over as long as the decline isn’t overly pervasive. A decline and solid hold of trend support could set these indices up well for longs later on.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above.

For a longer-term view on commodities and equity indices, see our Q2 forecasts in our Trading Guides section.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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