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Trading Outlook: Weaker US Dollar, Stronger Gold/Silver Prices, Higher Stock Indices

Trading Outlook: Weaker US Dollar, Stronger Gold/Silver Prices, Higher Stock Indices

2017-03-17 11:57:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

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After seeing the US Dollar Index (DXY) break hard in line with a technical sequence it formed prior to the FOMC meeting, the stance remains tilted lower into next week. Support arrives 1-1.5% lower. EURUSD and USDJPY are the primary targets, followed up by GBPUSD. AUDUSD surprised with its 2% rip, but will soon square off with resistance we would like to see overcome before becoming bulled up on.

Cross-rates we looked at were EURAUD (another possible bearish tech formation taking shape), GBPJPY (descending wedge could come into play), and AUDNZD (been a nice run, would like to see constructive price action before looking for another leg higher). We also looked at EM currencies as well; USDMXN dropped into support in line with our recent trade set-up and USDZAR renews weakness after a fake-out to the top-side.

While conviction is mixed on precious metals, it is likely if weakness persists in USD that we will see further upside in gold and silver prices.

Crude oil is caught between a pair of longer-term trend-lines and could use some time to work off short-term oversold conditions before eventually moving lower.

The DAX is at a make or break point, with a rising wedge formation fully developed – we’re just now waiting for the break. The S&P 500 held the confluence of trend-lines we’ve been focusing on, looking for that to continue and hold a generally bullish stance. The FTSE is heading into some top-side trend-lines, but maintains a nice sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The Nikkei 225 continues to coil up, but lags…we’re waiting.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.