Equity Price Action Setups Pre-FOMC/BOJ
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- This is an archive of a webinar that was hosted over gotowebinar on June 14th, 2016. To sign up for our next webinar in which we’ll be incorporating Historical SSI, please click here to register.
- The next 48 hours will bring considerable event risk to markets: Expected tonight is the decision as to whether or not MSCI will include Chinese A-shares in their Emerging Market index; tomorrow brings the next FOMC rate decision followed by the Bank of Japan rate decision later tomorrow night - and the next week brings us the widely-waited upon Brexit referendum. The expectation for volatility is extremely elevated. For tips on risk management, please check out our Traits of Successful Traders research.
- We started off by looking at the US Dollar, which has been on a veritable rollercoaster ride after the Fed propped up rate expectations throughout May, only to see those expectations dwindle as we saw a worsening patch of data in early-June. The big driver behind USD will likely be the Fed’s Dot Plot Matrix and the number of rate hikes that the bank is expecting for the remainder of 2016. The current expectation is for two hikes; but should the bank move that lower to one or even zero, the US Dollar could get significantly weaker.
- We then moved over to evaluate equity indices beginning with the S&P 500. The S&P 500 retains its bullish structure as price action is currently sitting at a ‘higher low’ point of support, defined by a Fibonacci retracement from last year’s high at 2,137 to the August 24th ‘Black Monday’ low of 1,833. The 23.6% retracement at 2,065 is current support; and should the Fed make that dovish move tomorrow, we could see the S&P pop-higher.
- We then moved over to the Nasdaq 100, which is putting in a bearish setup as defined by lower-highs going back to last November/December. We had discussed this setup last week in the article, Equities, Gold, Yen Price Action Setups Ahead of FOMC, BoJ, and we expanded upon that setup in today’s webinar.
- We closed by looking at the Nikkei (JPN225), and with the Bank of Japan on deck for Thursday morning (in Asia, Wednesday night US), this is primed to move.
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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