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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally at Key Long-Term Uptrend Resistance

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally at Key Long-Term Uptrend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices surged more than 3% this week with the XAU/USD rally now testing long-term uptrend resistance. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF price closes the week below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “testing uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope.” Price held below this threshold for the past two weekly closes with another attempt this week taking gold into a critical long-term resistance confluence at 1733- a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the decline off the 2011 record highs and converges on multi-year ascending pitchfork resistance. The focus is on a this key level with the immediate long-bias vulnerable while below.

Initial support rests at the March high-close at 1673 backed by the January high at 1611. Broader bullish invalidation at the objective April open / 61.8% retracement at 1575/86. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795 and the record high-week close at 1856. Both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached.

Bottom line: The gold price rally is testing critical long-term uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respective to 1733. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. A close above is needed to keep the long-bias viable. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.79 (73.6% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are10.29% higher than yesterday and 12.33% higher from last week
  • Short positions are12.58% higher than yesterday and 16.45% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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