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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Threatens Resistance Breakout

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Threatens Resistance Breakout

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices surged nearly 4% this week with the XAU/USD rally testing uptrend resistance ahead of the extended holiday break. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF price closes below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart XAUUSD

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “testing the first major resistance hurdle here at the yearly high-close. From a trading standpoint, the advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold.” The level in focus was 1673 – price is trading above this level in early New York trade on Thursday with parallel resistance catching the intraday highs for now. We’re looking for a reaction up here.

A close below slope resistance would leave the advance vulnerable heading into the extended holiday break. Initial support rests at the January highs at 1611 backed by 1586 and the April open at 1574- now medium-term bullish invalidation. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the yearly swing high at 1703 and the 78.6% retracement / pitchfork resistance at 1733/37 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

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Bottom line: The gold price rally is testing uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. While the broader outlook remains constructive, be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion here IF price holds below this trendline – ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs exposing longer-term technical resistance above 1730. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.04 (75.26% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are11.29% higher than yesterday and 10.13% higher from last week
  • Short positions are0.65% higher than yesterday and 1.52% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% 12% 4%
Weekly -7% -14% -8%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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