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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Falters at Multi-year Highs

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Falters at Multi-year Highs

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

Gold prices soared to fresh seven-year highs this week with a rally of more than 20% off the March lows taking bullion into long-term uptrend resistance. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance is at risk while below the weekly highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts in the days ahead. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast 4/17/2020

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was vulnerable heading into the close of March trade and that, “ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs needed to keep long-bias viable.” Price plummeted more than 5% to register a low at 1560 before ripping to fresh yearly highs into the April open.

The advance failed at slope resistance this week with price unable to mount a daily close above the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the record highs at 1733. Initial daily support rests at the March high-day close at 1678 backed by the median-line / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1633- look for a larger reaction there If reached. Key support / bullish invalidation now rests at 1564/85.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast - 4/17/2020

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action sees XAU/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March lows. A reversal off the upper parallel has price testing the weekly opening-range lows / median-line in early New York trade on Friday- look to the break for guidance with the broader advance at risk sub-1732 into the close of the week. A topside breach / close above the weekly highs needed to fuel the next leg higher in price with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795.

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Bottom line: The gold price breakout has responded to long-term uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the long-side the immediate risk remains for a deeper pullback. From at trading standpoint, the focus is on a break of the weekly opening range – look for downside exhaustion on move back towards uptrend support / 1633 for guidance IF reached.-A hold above this threshold would be needed to keep the broader March rally viable. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast - 4/17/2020
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.72 (63.26% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are 17.19% lower than yesterday and 1.10% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 0.21% higher than yesterday and 38.94% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold MIXED
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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