News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • ECB President Lagarde: - An ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance is critical - Fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary - EU aid package must become operational without delay #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Risks surrounding Euro-area outlook remain tilted to the downside, but less pronounced - Underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued - Inflation is likely to increase in the coming months as pandemic's impact fades #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Lagarde - Downside risks to outlook are less pronounced $EUR
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Resurgence of pandemic has likely led to decline in activity in Q4 2020 - Will also weigh on activity in Q1 2021 - Fiscal policies are supporting households and firms, but consumers are staying cautious #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Lagarde says will monitor developments in the exchange rate Slight change in tone from previously stating they will "very carefully" monitor FX movements
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Euro-area economy contracted in the fourth quarter - Uncertainty remains high - ECB is monitoring exchange rate for its impact on inflation - Ready to use all instruments as needed #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Inflation remains very low in the context of weak demand and significant slack - Data confirms pronounced near-term impact on economy and protracted weakness in inflation - Ample degree of monetary stimulus is essential #ECB $EUR
  • 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (JAN) Actual: 26.5 Expected: 12 Previous: 11.1
  • 🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (DEC) Actual: 4.6% Previous: 4.6%
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Heading For Four Straight Months of Gains!

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Heading For Four Straight Months of Gains!

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

WTI Crude Oil Price came within a whisper of the 2016 high on Tuesday after hitting $50.10 in mid-morning trading ahead of July Contract expiration. Regardless of recent force, the CL1 June contract has seen a May price range of ~14% (43.03-50.21) that may be slowing down but does not appear done.

After being the laughing stock of markets, Oil Bulls are looking at the longest run of gains in five years as they look to add another month to the streak of consecutive gains. While little is expected of the OPEC meeting this week, with some calling it a non-event, there is plenty to be on the watch for this week including the European Central Bank as well as the May Non-Farm Payroll release on Friday morning.

Additionally, escalations in Libya continue to hold Oil trader’s attention. However, larger risk-sentiment as seen via the SPX500 so far has continued to favor the view that the stock of supply as seen in the weekly API & EIA inventory data that is pushed back one day this week due to US Holiday’s on Monday will continue to show a draw due to increased demand.

While looking at the Average True Range, you can see that the price of Oil has become less volatile. Implied Volatility in Crude Oil ended last week at its lowest levels since August, which may show that Bears do not see a reason to fight the four-month uptrend that could continue. Also, the highest traded options contract on Friday as per Bloomberg was December 2017 $60 calls that also show long-term bullishness.

LT Chart Shows Price Continues To Move Above Resistance / Prior Price Ceilings Denoting Strength

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Heading For Four Straight Months of Gains!

Key Support & Resistance Levels from Here (Visual Map Below)

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Heading For Four Straight Months of Gains!

Looking at the chart above, since bouncing off the $43 level to piercing $50/bbl on Thursday morning, the market appears determined to buy dips toward multi-day lows despite the retail crowd’s intentions (shown below).

The recent low worth focusing on appears to be near the Weekly Pivot, which is close to $48.71 and appears to be a good support to favor staying long or at least, not to pay attention to getting short until it breaks.

Below $48.71 is the late April high of ~$46.755/bbl that also aligns with the 21-DMA. A break below would not only take out two key levels of support.

Current resistance is the confluence of the Weekly R2 Pivot, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion taken from the April Opening Range Low, and the October High. This range encompasses $50.90-51.09/bbl. Beyond there, price looks only to be targeting higher, and other hard resistance levels appear arbitrary at best though $53.34 & $60.90 do stand out as levels to watch.

While $50/bbl is a good psychological level that may continue to hold down the price, there is a potential that the risk-on rally in 2016 that has benefited commodities the most could have the price move higher still.

Contrarian System Warns of Further Upside As of 5/31/16

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Heading For Four Straight Months of Gains!

In addition to the technical focus around multiple support-zones, we should keep an eye on retail sentiment, which favors more upside price action. Further upside is currently aligned with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI for now.

The ratio of long to short positions in the USOil stands -3.09 as 24% of traders are long. Long positions are 15.3% higher than yesterday and 13.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 22.1% higher than yesterday and 49.9% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 20.4% higher than yesterday and 26.8% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives a signal that the USOil may continue higher.The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs As of Tuesday, May 31, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Heading For Four Straight Months of Gains!


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.