Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Breakout to Unravel

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Breakout to Unravel

What's on this page

Japanese Yen Technical Price Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Weekly Chart
  • USD/JPY breakout falters ahead of key resistance at seven-year highs
  • Support 120.66, 118.66, 117.90(critical)- Resistance at 125.28/85(key), 129.50-130, 132.24

The US Dollar is poised to snap a three-week winning streak against the Japanese Yen with the USD/JPY breakout faltering just pips ahead of key resistance a multi-year highs. While the broader focus remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable and we’ll be on the lookout for an exhaustion-low heading into the April open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart ahead of NFPs.Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/JPY technical setup and more.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Weekly - US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted key resistance at, “the August 2015 swing low at 116.08- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards the 2017 high-week close at 116.90 and the December 2016 high-week close at 117.90 (look for a larger reaction there IF reached).” USD/JPY ripped through both these levels in one day with the March 11th breakout charging a rally of more than 9.1% off the monthly lows. The advance failed to mark a weekly close above the upper median-line parallel (blue) with USD/JPY marking an intra-week high just pips from key resistance zone 125.28/85- a region defined by the 2015 swing highs. Is a near-term exhaustion high in place?

Initial weekly support now rests at the 38.2% retracement of the year-to-date range / 2016 high-week close at 120.66-121.11 backed a more significant technical confluence at 117.91-118.66- a region defined by the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement the December 2016 high-week close / high at. Look for a low ahead of this threshold IF USD/JPY is indeed heading higher on this stretch. A topside breach of this formation would likely fuel another accelerated advance towards susbequent resistance objectives near the highlighted slope region around ~129.50-130 and the 78.6% retracement of the 1998 decline at 132.24.

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our Japanese Yen Trading Forecast!
Get My Guide

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The USD/JPY breakout is extending into key resistance at multi-year highs and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 117.91 on pullbacks with a breach / weekly close above 125.85 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. Stay nimble heading into the April open with US non-farm payrolls on tap Friday – buckle-up! I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Retail Positioning - USDJPY Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY - the ratio stands at -3.02 (24.90% of traders are long) – typically bullish reading
  • Long positions are15.38% higher than yesterday and 9.49% higher from last week
  • Short positions are1.72% higher than yesterday and 3.76% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/JPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% 5% 0%
Weekly -1% -8% -5%
Learn how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


US / Japan Economic Calendar

US / Japan

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.