News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell over 1.8%. It is likely to end the day with a large bearish candlestick, which flags more downside risk. Breaking below 24,000 support will likely open the door for further losses with an eye at 23,780 - the 61.8% Fibonacci downward extension. https://t.co/mrYUt8dBvX
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.14% Silver: -0.30% Oil - US Crude: -1.24% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XNHL75HNAY
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.37% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.34% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.26% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/c9qsogfePj
  • $GBPUSD To Extend Slide on No-Deal #Brexit Fears, #Covid19UK Second Wave https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/09/21/GBPUSD-To-Extend-Slide-on-No-Deal-Brexit-Fears-Covid-19-Second-Wave.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/jEGvt9WMpn
  • 🇨🇭 Current Account (Q2) Actual: CHF 9.9B Previous: CHF 14.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-21
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.12% Wall Street: -0.26% France 40: -0.76% Germany 30: -0.89% FTSE 100: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/WZdIvNps2d
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Current Account (Q2) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Previous: CHF 17B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-21
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/s8MwR4fS22
  • #USD, #GBP, #EUR Volatility Ahead of Cross-Continental Geopolitical Risks 🌎 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/09/21/USD-GBP-EUR-Volatility-Ahead-of-Cross-Continental-Geopolitical-Risks.html
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/YqhzoZ7Iy2
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Responds to Major Trend Support

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Responds to Major Trend Support

2020-08-07 15:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollarupdated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • USD/CAD rebound off critical uptrend support builds post-NFP
  • Resistance now 1.3515 – Break lower exposes key Fibonacci support at 1.3057

The Canadian Dollar rallied 0.25% against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD attempting a fourth consecutive weekly advance. Price is set to close well off the lows however after rebounding off multi-year confluence support and leaves the broader March sell-off vulnerable in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 21
( 12:09 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that it was, “make-or-break for the Loonie bulls here with key, long-term, uptrend support just lower.” The zone in focus was 1.3323/64- a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the yearly range and the 50% retracement of the 2017 advance. Price briefly probed just below this threshold to register an intraweek low at the 1.3233 – a nearly perfect tag of long-term support at the lower parallel of the pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the 2016 / 2017 lows.

A close above 1.3323 / above 40 in weekly RSI - would leave the immediate short-bias vulnerable into the start of next week. Initial resistance now stands at the June trendline / May 2019 high-week close at 1.3515- we’ll now lower our bearish invalidation level to this confluence zone with a breach above the 2017 high-week close at 1.3709 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. A break / close below this key upslope would keep the focus on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3057- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Dollar Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The USD/CAD sell-off is poised to mark a fourth weekly decline into multi-year upslope support at multi-month lows. From at trading standpoint a spot to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops – look for topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3515 IF price is indeed heading lower with a break of this week’s lows needed suggest a larger trend reversal may be underway. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.65 (62.21% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are8.67% lower than yesterday and 7.77% lower from last week
  • Short positions are15.25% lower than yesterday and 10.55% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
USD/CAD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 7% 3% 6%
Weekly -5% -7% -5%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES