News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/yLt0ldtMsV
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/ZwwuTzTeac
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/4DGXwA8vqs
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian Dollar Eyes Jobs Data, Oil & OPEC

USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian Dollar Eyes Jobs Data, Oil & OPEC

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

CANADIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: USD/CAD PRICE PRIMED FOR VOLATILITY AS EMPLOYMENT DATA RELEASE & OPEC MEETING LOOM

  • USD/CAD tests a major technical support level around the 1.40 handle after sliding more than 4% from its recent swing high
  • The Canadian Dollar has rebounded ahead of an OPEC meeting and expected crude oil production cuts
  • Spot USD/CAD price action looks to high impact jobs data on deck for release and set to reveal the rise in unemployment due to COVID-19

USD/CAD has edged lower by about 650-pips, or 4.4%, since March 18 when the US Dollar surged to a fresh four-year high against the Canadian Dollar. One fundamental development that likely alleviated upward pressure on spot USD/CAD price action was an FX swap line extended by the FOMC to the Bank of Canada that offered access to US Dollar liquidity.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Improve your market knowledge and forex trading skills
Get My Guide

Much-needed stabilization in the price of crude oil, on the back of a rumored OPEC meeting slated for April 09, might have helped steer the recent decline in USD/CAD as well. This is considering the CAD to oil correlation.

USD/CAD & CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (31 JANUARY TO 08 APRIL 2020)

USDCAD and Crude Oil Price Chart OPEC+ Teleconference

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

The rebound in crude oil off its lowest level in nearly two decades could be short-lived, however, and potentially be headed for a drop below $20, if OPEC and its allies fail to agree on cutting crude oil output. Also, in light of economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and likely unavoidable recession, oil faces the downside risk that that OPEC+ production cuts will fall short of restoring market supply and demand.

Introduction to Forex News Trading
Introduction to Forex News Trading
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Learn how to analyze and react to market news in real-time
Get My Guide

On that note, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently announced how the crude oil supply glut could continue to bulge, even if OPEC+ cuts production by 10-million barrels per day, with demand and global GDP growth in freefall. Correspondingly, the Canadian economy, which is heavily dependent on energy exports and oil prices, may remain under pressure. This has potential to keep the Canadian Dollar bogged down and spot USD/CAD price action supported.

USD/CAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (01 JANUARY TO 08 APRIL 2020)

USDCAD Price Chart Canadian Dollar Forecast

Although, the recent wave of coronavirus optimism, if sustained, might continue to weigh negatively on USD/CAD and the broader US Dollar. Spot USD/CAD price action has meanwhile coiled into a tight triangle pattern as traders wait for these fundamental factors to unfold. On balance, and despite falling more than 4% from its March 18 peak, USD/CAD remains higher by 8% year-to-date.

USD/CAD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -37% 11% -26%
Weekly -3% 15% 3%
Learn how to use sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

After compressing between its short-term 9-day exponential moving average and medium-term 34-day exponential moving average, spot USD/CAD now tests a major level of confluence around the 1.4000 price. This area of technical support is underpinned by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest bullish leg printed by USD/CAD.

USD/CAD PRICE CHART: 2-HOUR TIME FRAME (27 MARCH TO 08 APRIL 2020)

USDCAD Price Chart Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis

At the same time, USD/CAD price action seems to have formed a string of higher lows since Tuesday, which suggests a base may be developing. If USD/CAD sinks back below the 1.4000 handle, however, Canadian Dollar bulls could make a push for a retest of the April 07 and March 27 intraday lows. Nevertheless, conclusions out of the OPEC+ teleconference, as well as the market’s net reaction to initial jobless claims and Canadian employment data releases due Thursday at 12:30 GMT, look to serve as the primary catalysts with potential of sparking the next big move ahead in spot USD/CAD.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES