News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda: - ETF purchases goal is to lower risk premium - ETF purchases not intended to raise stock prices - BBG
  • Natural gas is moving lower after weather models pointed to warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the US. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/HuXPXu5PFU https://t.co/YCSGO04Aud
  • Crude oil prices are underpinned by an unexpected fall in US crude inventories, as well as a softening US Dollar. The API reported a substantial 5.27-million-barrel draw in crude inventories, far larger than the baseline forecast of a 0.43-million-barrel rise. https://t.co/F2bQ58LVHl
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.41% Gold: -0.19% Silver: -0.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gyzo42h8OQ
  • (Sentiment Weekly) Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil Forecast: Will USD/CAD, WTI Fall as Long Bets Rise? (plus recording of today's webinar on IG Client Sentiment within the article below) https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/01/27/Canadian-Dollar-Crude-Oil-Forecast-Will-USDCAD-WTI-Fall-as-Long-Bets-Rise.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/hsw0vma7CL
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Dc4gyvBsZb
  • Gold and silver prices may continue to rise in the coming months on the back of falling real rates of return and the prospect of additional fiscal support under a Biden administration. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/OMNoNHn2vZ https://t.co/PxfRaYC4Pj
  • China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releases measures aimed at accelerating the reduction of steel output - BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.47%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JylO9zltOq
  • Will the Swiss Franc find reprieve after recent losses against the Canadian and New Zealand Dollars as NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF uptrends face key chart barriers? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/c89gcaNhTt https://t.co/AyIyZ4xpjQ
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Consolidates, Big Move Ahead?

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Consolidates, Big Move Ahead?

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

CANADIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: USD/CAD PRICE STUCK BETWEEN SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS, CAN THE LOONIE EXTEND ITS RECOVERY?

  • Spot USD/CAD price action gives back recent gains to start the first full trading week of 2Q-2020 as the Canadian Dollar selloff stabilizes
  • The US Dollar exploded higher last month and appreciated more than 5% against its Canadian Dollar peer amid the coronavirus lockdown and crude oil price war
  • USD/CAD now gyrates back and forth within a 300-pip trading range as markets await more clarity from economic data and OPEC

The Canadian Dollar plunged against most major currencies last month as the Loonie fell alongside the crash in crude oil. USD/CAD gained over 5% and now trades nearly 9% higher year-to-date. Upside in USD/CAD was likely compounded by broad-based strength in the US Dollar, which a prior Canadian Dollar forecast discussed in detail.

USD/CAD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% -18% -1%
Weekly 16% -2% 9%
Learn how to use sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

USD/CAD price action has since pulled back, however, after recent monetary policy intervention from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve provided relief to market strain and US Dollar liquidity pressure.

USD/CAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (31 DECEMBER 2019 TO 06 APRIL 2020)

USDCAD Price Chart Canadian Dollar Forecast

The Canadian Dollar has also started to recover with a modest rebound in crude oil sparked by rumor of an OPEC meeting later this week. Spot USD/CAD currently fluctuates around the 1.4130 price, which roughly corresponds with its 9-day exponential moving average, after sliding over 500-pips from its March 18 swing high.

Read More – Canadian Dollar and Oil Price Correlation

Recently defined technical support and resistance levels might continue to jostle USD/CAD price action while market participants digest oil price headlines and upcoming data releases teed up to detail economic damage caused by COVID-19.

Introduction to Forex News Trading
Introduction to Forex News Trading
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Check out these forex news trading strategies
Get My Guide

As such, spot USD/CAD could be kept relatively contained between its March 27 swing low and March 31 swing high, which are levels of technical confluence underpinned by the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements of its year-to-date trading range.

USD/CAD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (06 MARCH TO 06 APRIL 2020)

USDCAD Price Chart Canadian Dollar Forecast

As USD/CAD consolidates, spot prices have developed a notable series of higher lows and lower highs that appear to form a triangle pattern on a 4-hour chart. The positively-sloped support trendline, extended through the March 09 and March 27 swing lows, might look to bolster spot USD/CAD going forward.

Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Discover our latest top trading opportunities
Get My Guide

Although, resistance posed by the 1.4200 handle and shorter-term downtrend since last month’s top could keep the Canadian Dollar propped up and a lid on USD/CAD price action. A breakout above last week's high or breakdown below last week's low has potential to open up the door to a retest of the March 18 top or bridge the March 08 gap higher.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES