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Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Breakdown to Nine-month Lows

Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Breakdown to Nine-month Lows

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Near-term Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Weekly & Daily Charts
  • USD/MXN attempting to break January opening-range lows
  • Key support 19.3496– Risk for further losses while below 20.2626

The US Dollar is down more than 1% against the Mexican Peso this week with USD/MXN attempting to break below a multi-month range today. While the risk remains weighted to the downside, the decline is now approaching longer-term uptrend support just lower. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Peso setup and more.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Weekly

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Weekly - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - USDMXN Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Mexican Peso Price Outlook we noted that USD/MXN was trading, “just above downtrend support and while the broader risk remains lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable here.” It’s been nearly two-months of lateral movement in price with the Dollar challenging a break of January opening-range lows in early US trade.

Initial support is eyed at the December 2017 high-week reversal close at 19.6402. A break / close below this threshold is needed to mark resumption towards more significant support at the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 range at 19.3496- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Peso price action shows USD/MXN continuing to trade within the confines of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2020 highs. Monthly / yearly open resistance stands at 19.8939 backed by 20.0752. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the January opening-range highs / parallel resistance (blue) at 20.2626 – a breach / close above this threshold is needed to validate a larger reversal with such a scenario exposing initial objectives at the September lows at 20.8377.

Bottom line: The Mexican Peso price rally is challenging the monthly opening-range with USD/MXN probing the lows- watch the weekly close here. A break lower would keep the focus on 19.3496- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Keep in mind that the Peso trend has matured and ultimately, a larger decline here may offer more favorable opportunities closer to downtrend support.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy


Key US / Mexico Data Releases

Key US / Mexico Data Releases - Peso Event Risk - USD/MXN Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.