News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/VcNnCjm0B2
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
DAX Consolidating or Topping? ECB May Determine Its Fate

DAX Consolidating or Topping? ECB May Determine Its Fate

2017-10-26 08:09:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

What’s inside:

  • DAX consolidation under threat of breaking down from important long-term trend-lines
  • A clean break below 12909 would likely set into motion a move to sub-12700
  • ECB expected to extend but reduce QE program, to what extent is where/if any surprises may arise

Find out what’s driving the DAX and Euro in our Q4 Forecast.

Lately, we’ve been discussing a pair of top-side trend-lines standing in the way of the DAX advancing to new heights. They are both long-term in nature, with one very long-term; 2000-present, the other crosses from the 2015 peak over the June high. Both aligning in the same proximity of 13000/100.

Since early this month the index has undergone a period of consolidation right at these lines, which either meant we could see a follow-through trade to the top-side trend-lines or a breakdown from the consolidation pattern. A drop through 12909 will undermine the period of digestion and likely lead to an extended move lower towards the next level of support at 12676, a swing-high created back in July. If the DAX can continue to maintain and move beyond the aforementioned trend-lines then the benefit of the doubt will remain with the trend and longs.

DAX: Daily

DAX Consolidating or Topping? ECB May Determine Its Fate

Check out this guide for tips on Building Confidence in Trading

Today could be pivotal…

At 11:45 GMT time, the ECB is widely anticipated to extend its current QE program, but is expected to reduce the amount of the monthly bond purchases by half to €30b. The press conference with Draghi begins at 12:30 GMT. Volatility is likely to be subdued if the central bank acts inline with expectations, but any significant deviations from the expected could give a sharp rise to price swings in the DAX and euro. The swings will almost certainly come in opposite directions. It’s worth noting, however; the strongly negative correlation seen recently between the single-currency and major European indices (1-mo. correlation of DAX vs. EURUSD was nearly -90% earlier this month) has diminished and even turned slightly positive when looking back over the past month. Is the diminishing impact of the euro here to stay, or will we see it exert itself once again on the direction of the DAX?

In any event, the consolidation pattern if not soon broken to the upside could turn out to be a topping formation, and with major long-term trend-lines standing in the way this wouldn’t be surprising. Keep an eye on 12909.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES