News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/VzEbQn8blk
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/ETF52Q2sLz
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/AXZxK8Abrh
  • Global stock markets may see turbulent volatility if darkening clouds over Washington’s relations with Beijing turn into a geopolitical storm. Which assets will be the lifeboat? Find out here:https://t.co/RkFI6qAyik https://t.co/9Ppa4d48Ql
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/e0liqVDzw6
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major peers, but there is room for a near-term climb that wouldn’t necessarily overturn a bearish technical bias. USD/JPY is eyeing support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AEnQCXnwAL https://t.co/tuq7DDF3jE
  • Protests in Colombia may continue to pressure the Peso, but surging commodity prices and a weaker Greenback could curb USD/COP gains. Get your market update here:https://t.co/vcVH75xuKI https://t.co/kEvbsagB4a
  • Money never sleeps.... https://t.co/mAkpWd2M3O
  • The US exchanges are closed and now we have to turn over to the cryptocurrency charts to monitor developments in risk trends over the weekend. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to separate systemic sentiment influences vs isolated issues (like a celebrity's tweet about a coin)
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.93% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.72% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.55% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.50% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rzD7Gp4VIC
Euro Eyes ECB Policy Update, Bias Favors Weakness

Euro Eyes ECB Policy Update, Bias Favors Weakness

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro bias favors weakness as ECB unveils QE program upgrade
  • US Dollar down with Treasury yields as Fed rate hike bets cool
  • Yen up as Nikkei backtracks after upside gap, NZ Dollar lower

All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement in European hours. President Mario Draghi and company are widely expected to “taper” the size of monthly QE asset purchases while extending the program beyond 2017. Baseline expectations envision halving the current pace of uptake from €60 to €30 billion and pushing the expiration date out by nine months.

The Governing Council has surely considered that Euro gains in 2017 will likely act as a disinflationary force in next year’s CPI data. With that in mind, policymakers may be especially careful not to deliver an outcome that drives the single currency upward and thereby undermines the effort to bring inflation back to the ECB target of just below 2 percent.

A smaller cutback in purchases – perhaps to €40 billion/month – may be way to achieve this. The hawkish contingent on the Council could be mollified by a shorter 6-month extension, paving the way for a relatively sooner rethink should further tapering be appropriate. In any case, Mr Draghi is likely to use the post-meeting press conference to downplay any hawkish exuberance by the announcement might trigger.

On balance, the defining assessment of whatever policy combination is unveiled will most probably depend on the total size of additional stimulus on offer. Consensus forecasts translate into €270 billion additional QE. A larger overall boost will probably send the Euro lower while a smaller one inspires gains. The upside may be limited however considering all available scenarios amount to more easing, not less.

The US Dollar edged broadly lower in Asia Pacific trade. The currency declined alongside front-end Treasury bond yields, hinting at a pullback in Fed rate hike bets as the driver behind the move. The perennially anti-risk Yen rose as Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index pulled back after gapping higher at Tokyo session open. Political uncertainty jitters continued to weigh on the New Zealand Dollar.

Have a question about trading in the FX markets? Join a Q&A webinar and ask it live!

Asia Session

Euro Eyes ECB Policy Update, Bias Favors Weakness

European Session

Euro Eyes ECB Policy Update, Bias Favors Weakness

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES