News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in AUD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Hey traders check out @PeterHanksFX make a guest appearance with @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal for this week's @macrosetup
  • RT @IG_US: @GuyAdami & @RiskReversal talk: - "Bidenomics" - U.S. Debt Binge... - What the promise of added stimulus, QE forever, low rates…
  • $AUDUSD has pared today's gains, falling back to trade around the 0.7690 level after a climb to 0.7715 this morning. $AUD $USD
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.61% Wall Street: 0.29% Germany 30: 0.22% FTSE 100: 0.21% France 40: 0.20% View the performance of all markets via
  • $GBPUSD crossed back above 1.3600 as the pair recovers from weakness yesterday and last week. The 1.3600 area has repeatedly come into play on the pair since mid December. $GBP $USD
  • BoE Chief Economist Haldane: - Bounceback from Covid may be sharper than after financial crisis - BoE is not engaging in monetary financing - QE is temporary action to keep borrowing costs low #BoE $GBP
  • US Indices have held onto their earlier gains as the trading day continues. DOW +0.51% NDX +1.35% SPX +0.82% RUT +1.15% $DOW $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • The price of gold trades below the 50-Day SMA ($1859) once again as the V-shape recovery from the November low ($1765) unravels. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • webinar starting right now - topics up for discussion today: 1. Did USD just top? 2. Resistance at prior support EUR/USD 3. How long might USD pullback run for? starting right now -
DAX Technical Outlook: Lower Levels Likely Ahead

DAX Technical Outlook: Lower Levels Likely Ahead

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • DAX positioned for April gap-fill and move below 12k soon
  • Euro not helping, correlation strongly negative but can change without warning
  • Volatility is offering more to traders than in other major benchmarks (S&P 500)

Find out in our Q3 Forecast what’s driving the DAX and Euro.

In Tuesday’s post, we discussed the positioning of the DAX as remaining bearish, with the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top having triggered and the French election gap on the verge of filling. It was that same day we saw the DAX put in a fairly strong bounce, popping back above the neckline of the H&S formation and testing the top the of the election-gap. But that was where it all ended as now the German index is working its way towards a gap-fill and likely sub-12k soon.

The trend is undeniably weak since hitting a record high in June, the weakest of major global indices at this time. The euro continuing to press on to two-and-half year highs is certainly not helping the cause for investors. The correlation between the DAX and euro is a strongly negative 87% over the past three months. For traders, the trend higher in the euro, lower in the DAX has provided opportunity in a low-volatile global market environment. It’ll be interesting to see if the strong relationship between the two will persist should we see a turn in the euro (As we discuss regularly in webinars, correlations can get turned on their heads without warning.)

The DAX volatility benchmark – VDAX – is trading up over 14, which still isn’t very high, but certainly an improvement from the string of sub-10 readings we recently saw in the VIX, the volatility benchmark for the S&P 500. So, if there is a major global index to look to for volatility it’s the DAX, along with the Nasdaq 100, which has also experienced volatility in its own right. The Nasdaq 100 volatility barometer – VXN – is trading over 14.

Getting back to the chart, the DAX cash index only has a little distance to drop before filling the French election gap at 12048. The next level we’re looking to, though, really comes in under 12k at a swing-low in April at 11941, followed up by the 200-day and March low in the 11870/50 vicinity. As we’ve said before, the measured move target for the H&S formation isn’t until 11630, but it’s actual price not derived levels which we are most interested in. How the DAX responds should it test those levels will be the tell as to whether we are in for a much broader move lower or an abbreviated drop from a bearish topping formation.

Paul conducts webinars Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of upcoming live events.

DAX: Daily

DAX Technical Outlook: Lower Levels Likely Ahead

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.