What’s inside:
- The DAX continues to chop around
- Swing trade opportunities difficult, but still opportunities on the very short-term time-frame
- Hourly chart in view
Since our last post on Thursday, the DAX slipped below the late Sep/early Oct peaks during the past two sessions. Last Tuesday, following the double rejection on an attempted move to the best levels of the year beyond the Aug/Sep highs, we took a negative stance on the index, but strong conviction is lacking.
In this choppy trading environment, turning views into money has proven difficult for the swing-trader; it’s been like this for several months now. But for traders who operate on time-frames of a couple of days or less (day-traders) there are still levels and technical developments which we can operate off of.
Before we delve into the short-term chart, keep in mind, on the daily the DAX is below those late-summer twin peaks around 10700, with nothing substantial until the June to current trend-line in the lower 10500s. This leaves the DAX between an area of support and resistance.
Dropping down to the hourly chart: A steady set of parallels (channel) is forming off the 10/25 highs. This keeps the immediate picture turned lower with lower highs and lower lows in place. The market needs to overcome the top-side parallel and Friday high at 10716 before any sort of upward momentum can potentially kick in. Beyond there we will look to 10773 and the year at 10827.
Continued trade below the upper parallel keeps the bias pointed lower to neutral at best, and could bring into play the Friday low at 10583 and a trend-line extending back to the 9/30 Deutsche Bank-induced swing low.
DAX: 1-hour (daily)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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