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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Breakout Extends into 2021- Resistance in View

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Breakout Extends into 2021- Resistance in View

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD breakout approaching uptrend resistance
  • Key resistance into 1.2409 – Bullish invalidation steady at 1.1823/35

Euro surged nearly 1% against the US Dollar into the open of the 2020 with the EUR/USD rally extending more than 6.4% off the November lows before stalling. The advance takes Euro into uptrend resistance at fresh multi-year highs and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here in the days ahead with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap tomorrow. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlookwe noted that a breakout in EUR/USD kept the focus higher in price while above 1.2005 with, “subsequent objectives at channel / parallel resistance (red- currently near 1.2220s) backed by the 88.6% retracement at 1.23378 and the 2018 high-week close at 1.2409- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached.” Euro registered a high at 1.2349 yesterday before turning sharply lower and the focus is on inflection off this threshold with the immediate advance vulnerable while below.

Initial weekly support now rests at 1.2145 backed by the 1.2005 – both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. broader bullish invalidation remains unchanged at 1.1823/35. A topside breach from here still has to contend with the 2018 high-week close at 1.2409 – this still remains an area of interest for a possible exhaustion high reached over the next week.

Bottom line: The Euro breakout has extended into broader uptrend resistance and we’re looking for a reaction up here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – failure to mount 1.2337 on a weekly close basis would threaten a larger price correction within the confines of the broader uptrend. Ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable opportunities closer to uptrend support with a topside breach above channel resistance exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2595. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Retail Positioning - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.52 (39.64% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are19.99% higher than yesterday and 19.56% higher from last week
  • Short positions are13.82% lower than yesterday and 10.17% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.


Key Eurozone / US Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Eurozone / US Key Data Releases - EURUSD Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.