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EUR/JPY: Bounce Finds Sellers Sub-125, Break on the Horizon?

EUR/JPY: Bounce Finds Sellers Sub-125, Break on the Horizon?

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

EUR/JPY Talking Points:

- After a significant surge of Yen-strength to start the year, EUR/JPY has spent much of the time since in varying forms of recovery, adhering to a bullish channel that’s built over the past few weeks of price action.

- Last week brought the bears back on the pair as Euro weakness became more prominent, and an early-week bounce is in-focus after sellers responded to offer resistance at the 38.2% marker of last week’s sell-off.

- DailyFX Forecasts are available on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Upward-Sloping Channel Forms After New Year Spill

It’s been an interesting start to 2019 for EUR/JPY. After spiraling lower shortly after the 2019 open, hitting a fresh 20-month low on the second trading day of the year, much of the time since has been spent in a range with an upward-sloping bias.

EUR/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart

eurjpy eur/jpy four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

After setting fresh monthly highs in the opening days of February, the bearish side of the pair has come back into view as Euro weakness has become a bit more prominent. And while both Euro and Yen weakness are showing against the US Dollar so far this week, the selling in the Euro has been more pronounced and this has helped EUR/JPY to tilt back down towards the 124.00 level.

A Fibonacci retracement drawn around the bearish move in February can be used to help substantiate levels of interest. The 125.00 psychological level that was looked at last month remains of interest, and this is very near the 50% marker of that recent move. This can be incorporated with the longer-term 38.2% retracement at 124.91 to establish a resistance zone. On the support side of the pair, the vicinity around 124.00 remains of interest, as the 38.2% retracement of the September-January sell-off resides at 124.09, and this is just a few pips below last week’s low in the pair at 124.15.

EUR/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart

eurjpy eur/jpy four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EUR/JPY Strategy

At this stage, there are a few ways that traders can look to approach EUR/JPY. For those looking to implement a longer-term bullish view, waiting for the pair to reclaim ground above the 125.00 resistance area could make that prospect look more attractive. On the bearish side, traders looking to implement longer-term short-side themes may be best served for waiting for a test below the 124.00 level as indication that bears may be able to continue driving beyond recent support.

In the mean-time, traders have the option of working with the shorter-term mean reversion theme in the pair, in which stops can be investigated below the support zone coupled with initial targets around resistance of 124.92-125.00.

EUR/JPY Hourly Price Chart

eurjpy eur/jpy hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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