USDJPY, EURUSD US Dollar Talking Points:
- US Dollar bulls continue to drive, and the currency has opened the week with a fresh monthly high as prices make a fast approach at the 2019 high around the 97.00-handle. This week brings a slew of Fed speakers with commentary set to be offered every day of the week. On the data-front US CPI is released on Wednesday, Advance Retail Sales on Thursday and U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
- Going along with that US Dollar strength is a test of longer-term support in EUR/USD as the pair works below the 1.1300 level. While the trend in EURUSD has been very consistent over the past week-and-a-half, this area of longer-term support around 1.1300 has offered rebuttal on multiple bearish drives in over the past three months. Will sellers finally be able to break prices down below 1.1200? Meanwhile, USD/JPY has run-up to fresh 2019 highs while USDCAD tests higher-low support in a key zone.
- DailyFX Forecasts have been published for Q1, 2019 on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.
Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
US Dollar Bulls Remain in Driver Seat
The US Dollar has opened this week’s trade by continuing the bullish trend that started around the late-January FOMC rate decision. That meeting took place on the Wednesday before last, and since then Dollar bulls have taken-control of near-term price action in the currency to push up to fresh monthly highs, eclipsing the 96.68 level that held the bullish advance in the latter-portion of last week. Ahead on the chart, the 97.00 looms large and a test above this zone would constitute a fresh 2019 high.
US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
On this week’s economic calendar, the potential exists for continued USD volatility, as a slew of Fed speakers are set to give commentary each day of this week; and on the data front, US CPI is released on Wednesday, Advance Retail Sales is due on Thursday morning and U of Mich Consumer Sentiment is unveiled on Friday morning.
USD: Fed-Speak for This Week (Times in Eastern)
Chart prepared by James Stanley
EUR/USD Rides Short-Term Trend into Range Support
For much of the past three months, EUR/USD has been exhibiting back-and-forth price action. Resistance has held for much of the period in a zone that runs from 1.1448-1.1500 while support has shown at a series of higher lows from 1.1200-1.1300.
But, over the past week and change as the US Dollar strength has become more pronounced, EUR/USD has dropped lower with an impressive degree of consistency. On the hourly chart below, a bearish trend-line has been added to highlight this theme.
EUR/USD Hourly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
The big question at this point around EUR/USD is whether sellers can retain control as longer-term support has come into the equation. Since the bearish trend in the pair stalled-out in November, there have been numerous attempts from sellers to leave this zone behind, most recently a couple of weeks ago. But each has thus far failed; and that can make the prospect of chasing this move in the early-portion of this week as challenging item.
EUR/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
USD/JPY Trades Above Key 110.00 Level, Breaks Out to Fresh 2019 High
Going along with that US Dollar strength has been a topside push in USD/JPY as the pair is now trading at fresh 2019 highs. The 110.00 level had provided numerous instances of resistance over the past few weeks as the pair recovered from the early-year surge of Yen-strength. This pair was looked at in this week’s FX setups, focusing on topside moves to open the door for bullish strategies in the pair.
USD/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
USD/CAD Tests Higher-Low Support After Last Week’s Bounce
USD/CAD had a strong outing last week, and this comes after setting a fresh two-month low on the first day of February. Sliding Oil prices contributed to last week’s move, but the Friday jobs report out of Canada brought a quick run of CAD-strength to push USD/CAD down to a key zone of prior support that runs from 1.3236-1.3259. A hold of this support can open the door for a re-test of resistance at 1.3325 and the zone that runs from 1.3361-1.3385. On the other hand, should that 1.3325 resistance hold, the door remains open for another push lower, looking for a re-test of the February low that takes place around the 1.3066 Fibonacci level.
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
Forex Trading Resources
DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.
If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
