Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: Aussie Bulls Eye Key Resistance

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: Aussie Bulls Eye Key Resistance

What's on this page

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD rally off January low now eyeing yearly range highs- risk for breakout
  • Resistance 7270, 7313(key), 7365 - Support 7167, 7086 (critical)

The Australian Dollar surged 1.62% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with AUD/USD now approaching the yearly range highs. The immediate rally may be vulnerable here but losses should be tamed IF Aussie is going to make a run at the highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was, “approaching key support at a multi-year pivot zone which has sparked major inflections in price (note the December low). From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 7000” Aussie briefly registered an intraday low at 6967 the following day before reversing sharply into the close of January with price rallying more than 4.5% off that low. Aussie is now probing yearly open resistance at 7270 with the yearly opening-range highs just higher at 7313. Is this a possible double-bottom scenario with the December lows in play here?

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the December / January lows. An embedded channel off the same low (red) gives some guidance to the rally but the immediate focus today is on a the close with respect to the yearly open with the threat of topside exhaustion while below.

Weekly open support rests just below the channel at 7167 with near-term bullish invalidation set to last week’s low at 7086. A breach beyond today’s high would keep the focus on the objective January opening-range highs at 7313- look for a reaction there with breach likely to fuel another accelerated run towards initial resistance objectives at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 decline / 100% extension of the late-January rally at 7364/67 and the September 2020 high at 7413.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Bottom line:The Australian Dollar rally is now testing yearly open resistance and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable to exhaustion while below 7270. From at trading standpoint, a good region to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should me limited to the weekly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above the January highs needed to suggest a larger Aussie reversal is underway. Keep in mind the RBA interest rate decision is on tap early next week- stay nimble here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - AUDUSD Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.46 (40.64% of traders are long) – typically a weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 8.89% lower than yesterday and 20.89% lower from last week
  • Short positions are11.29% higher than yesterday and 21.14% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
AUD/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -2% 4% 1%
Weekly -4% 39% 16%
Learn how shifts in Aussie retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Australia / US Economic Calendar

Australia / US Economic Calendar - AUD/USD Key Data Releases - Aussie Weekly Event Risk- RBA

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.