News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Recent price action in the US Dollar Index (DXY) casts a bearish outlook for the Greenback as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/aQVzoACWEp https://t.co/TBFiTrur0P
  • USD/MXN drops back into its recent range as investors await further guidance from economic data. Get your weekly Mexican Peso forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/reMgPrFGdF https://t.co/dl6gomcFxF
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0uF2Ct https://t.co/KS13JNwlvL
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/bxQ8s8eGjR
  • Australian Dollar plunged for a fifth week but held key downtrend support at the yearly lows. Get your weekly AUD technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/uyUWYQoYS7 https://t.co/BXid10FYD1
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/eReyYRYOn1
  • Last week’s march higher in EUR/USD may well extend further after Friday’s Eurozone economic statistics that will likely turn the ECB more hawkish on monetary policy. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/EWrJy5LfOF https://t.co/NQj5xCdw9b
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/uDeIMr1Ks4
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/srqRhfdKUd
  • Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again. Get your weekly GBP technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/030gXzxlEc https://t.co/ux7W6OcBOm
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Grinds into Downtrend Resistance

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Grinds into Downtrend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD sets weekly / monthly open-ranges below downtrend resistance
  • Risk for further losses sub-7161 – Critical near-term support 7016/42
Advertisement

The Australian Dollar is down just 0.53%against the US Dollar in October despite a monthly range of more than 3% with AUD/USD rebounding off critical support last week. A critical price range is in focus heading into the close of the month and we’re looking for the break for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted to be on the lookout, “for topside exhaustion ahead of the September channel resistance with a break below 7073/84 needed for another challenge at key yearly open support.” Aussie plummeted into the 2020/2019 yearly opens at 7016/42 last week before rebounding sharply with the recovery stalling just ahead of the October open at 7161 – we’re looking for a break of this key range for guidance in the days ahead.

A topside breach / close above this channel is needed to shift the broader focus higher again towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September decline at 7256. A close below 7016 is needed to mark resumption with such a scenario exposing initial daily support objectives atthe 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 6963.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formationextending off the monthly highs with a rebound off the lower parallel last week failing at the 61.8% retracement of the October range at 7158 - note the monthly open / channel resistance just higher at ~7165. Look for inflection there IF reached with the immediate recovery vulnerable while below.

Initial support rests at the Friday low at 7101 backed by the 61.8% retracement of the near-term recent rally at 7073. Critical support steady at 7016/42 – a break / close below would suggest a larger correction is underway with initial objectives eyed at the 1.618% ext at 6987 and 6963.

Bottom line: Australian Dollar is carving the weekly opening-range just below the monthly open / downtrend resistance – look to the breakout for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the risk remains for a deeper setback / topside exhaustion while below the September trendline with a break below yearly-open support needed to mark resumption. Ultimately, a topside breach / close above the October open would be needed to keep the near-term recovery viable. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.20 (45.38% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 5.69% higher than yesterday and 21.33% lower from last week
  • Short positions are18.12% higher than yesterday and 5.06% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

---

Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES