Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Pending- Aussie Setup

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Pending- Aussie Setup

What's on this page

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD sets monthly opening-range below trend resistance
  • Risk for further losses sub-7256 – key near-term support 7076

The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with Aussie carving a well-defined weekly / October opening-range just below trend resistance. The immediate focus is on a break of this range with AUD/USD still at risk for further losses after breaking uptrend support last month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was approaching a key inflection zone at 7125/31 with a break / close below, “needed to suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario risking a decline towards the 2020 / 2019 yearly opens at 7016/42.” Aussie registered a low at 7005 in the following days before rebounding sharply into the close of September.

The October opening-range is now straddling the 7125/31 region with and outside-day reversal off the highs on Tuesday highlighting the risk remains for a deeper setback here. Resistance stands at the monthly range highs at 7209 backed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7256. Ultimately a breach / close above confluence resistance at 7324/29 is needed to mark resumption of the March uptrend.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly highs with a rebound off the lower parallel early in the week now trading just below slope resistance / weekly open at 7165. Near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 7208. Initial support rests at 7131 backed by 7076/84- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close below critical support at 7016/42 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway here.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Australian Dollar has carved a well-defined monthly / weekly opening-range and price remains at risk for a deeper setback while within this multi-week downtrend. From at trading standpoint, look for topside exhaustion ahead of the September channel resistance with a break below 7073/84 needed for another challenge at key yearly open support. Ultimately, a larger setback may offer more favorable opportunities with a topside breach / close above 7329 needed to mark resumption. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.46 (40.60% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 2.55% higher than yesterday and 9.61% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.24% lower than yesterday and 24.94% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias.
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 4% -2%
Weekly 7% -13% -1%
Learn how shifts in Aussie retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Event Risk - Trade Outlook

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.