News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Pending- Aussie Setup

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Pending- Aussie Setup

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD sets monthly opening-range below trend resistance
  • Risk for further losses sub-7256 – key near-term support 7076

The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with Aussie carving a well-defined weekly / October opening-range just below trend resistance. The immediate focus is on a break of this range with AUD/USD still at risk for further losses after breaking uptrend support last month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was approaching a key inflection zone at 7125/31 with a break / close below, “needed to suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario risking a decline towards the 2020 / 2019 yearly opens at 7016/42.” Aussie registered a low at 7005 in the following days before rebounding sharply into the close of September.

The October opening-range is now straddling the 7125/31 region with and outside-day reversal off the highs on Tuesday highlighting the risk remains for a deeper setback here. Resistance stands at the monthly range highs at 7209 backed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7256. Ultimately a breach / close above confluence resistance at 7324/29 is needed to mark resumption of the March uptrend.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formationextending off the monthly highs with a rebound off the lower parallel early in the week now trading just below slope resistance / weekly open at 7165. Near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 7208. Initial support rests at 7131 backed by 7076/84- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close below critical support at 7016/42 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway here.

Bottom line: Australian Dollar has carved a well-defined monthly / weekly opening-range and price remains at risk for a deeper setback while within this multi-week downtrend. From at trading standpoint, look for topside exhaustion ahead of the September channel resistance with a break below 7073/84 needed for another challenge at key yearly open support. Ultimately, a larger setback may offer more favorable opportunities with a topside breach / close above 7329 needed to mark resumption. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.46 (40.60% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 2.55% higher than yesterday and 9.61% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.24% lower than yesterday and 24.94% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias.


Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Event Risk - Trade Outlook

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.