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Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Rally at Risk into Trend Resistance

Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Rally at Risk into Trend Resistance

2020-08-18 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD breakout testing multi-year trend resistance
  • Aussie constructive while above 7016- Key resistance at 7328

The Australian Dollar is up nearly 1% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with an eight-week rally taking AUD/USD into critical, multi-year downtrend resistance. Can Aussie muster a ninth weekly advance through key technical resistance? These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the Aussie rally was testing, “key Fibonacci resistance – a close above 7131 is needed to keep the long-bias viable towards7329. A close higher two-weeks later kept the long-bias in play with the advance now testing trendline resistance extending off the late-2013 / 2014 highs.

Critical resistance stands just higher at the 2018 / May 2017 low at 7295-7329 – a breach / close above this threshold would suggest that a major trend reversal is underway with such a scenario exposing the 78.6% retracement at 7573. Look for initial support back at 7131 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2020 / 2019 yearly opens at 7016/42.

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Bottom line: The Australian Dollar breakout is testing multi-year trend resistance here and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion into this region. Ultimately a larger correction may offer more favorable opportunities with a breach above 7329 needed to mark resumption of the late-March uptrend. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.46 (40.70% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 1.59% higher than yesterday and 1.91% higher from last week
  • Short positions are3.25% higher than yesterday and 2.24% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
AUD/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 5% -6% -1%
Weekly 24% -25% -5%
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Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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