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After a series of smaller degree 1-2 Elliott Wave advances, the USD/JPY up trend has stalled at a resistance trend line. The wave picture previously painted is still technically bullish though the inability for USD/JPY accelerate higher is concerning.

One thing is obvious, downward moves in USD/JPY are carving in three waves while larger advances are impulsive. This implies that regardless of what the near term Elliott Wave pattern is, the longer term pattern is bullish and could be at the beginning edges of a larger advance.

Are you new to FX trading? This ebook was created just for you.

USD/JPY Stalls While Nikkei 225 Advances; One Trend Likely Reverses

A correlation we have been keeping an eye on is USD/JPY versus Nikkei 225. We can see a historical relationship occurring between the two markets. Of late, Nikkei has been cranking higher to levels not seen in 21 years while USD/JPY cannot break recent highs.

If this correlation moves back into favor, then it suggests one of these markets may play ‘catch up’ to the other. That would imply USD/JPY reverses its recent range and cranks higher to ‘catch up’ to Nikkei. Alternatively, Nikkei may reverse lower and underperform against USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Stalls While Nikkei 225 Advances; One Trend Likely Reverses

IG Client Sentiment shows the number of traders have been shifting net short over the past couple of week. This is actually a bullish signal that lines up with the longer term Elliott Wave model. View how live traders are currently positioned with our IG client sentiment tool.

Do you struggle with your trading? This might be why.

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. These articles are designed to illustrate Elliott Wave applied to the current market environment.

Jeremy’s favorite Elliott Wave Resources:

Elliott Wave Patterns: What is a Zigzag?

3 Elliott Wave Flat Patterns to Know and Understand

Learn more about the Elliott Wave patterns by receiving our beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guides.

Also, view these one-hour webinar recordings on the specific patterns:

Elliott Wave Impulse Patterns

Elliott Wave Zigzag Patterns

Elliott Wave Flat Patterns

Elliott Wave Triangle Patterns

Elliott Wave Diagonal Patterns

Starting Your Elliott Wave Counting

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

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Recent Elliott Wave articles by Jeremy:

AUD/USD Technical Forecast: Sideways to Higher Trading

EURUSD Attracted to 1.20

DJIA Momentum Diverges from Price