News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • Even more remarkable than the record high levels of leverage registered in US equities this past week was the attention it garnered. Paying attention to risk is a threat when markets are this high and the docket as dense as it is this week. My outlook:
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here:
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here:
Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Outlook Bullish, Pullback Eyed

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Outlook Bullish, Pullback Eyed

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Yen roars higher after testing trend support from December 2014
  • Retail trader sentiment studies setting the stage for further gains
  • Key crosses might retrace latest moves before Yen rally resumes

The Japanese Yen has seemingly made clear its intentions after testing trend support leading the currency higher against an average of its major counterparts since December 2014. A would-be bearish Flag chart pattern flagged last week now seems to be conclusively unraveled after the Yen roared higher to post the largest weekly rise in almost four years.

Japanese Yen price chart - average vs major currencies - weekly

Japanese Yen weekly chart created with TradingView

Trader positioning studies seem to support the case for continued Yen strength. The IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) gauge – a typically contrarian indicator – shows 62.31% of traders with exposure to the benchmark USD/JPY exchange rate are net-long, with the long-to-short ratio at 1.65 to 1. This suggests that the currency pair remains biased downward.

Furthermore, the number of traders net-long is 3.89% lower than yesterday, but the net-short count is 34.07% lower. Taking a longer-term view, the net-long number of traders net-long is 31.12% higher from while the tally of those net-short is 60.68% lower compared with last week. On balance, this speaks to a deepening net-long skew that strengthens the case for a USD/JPY-bearish (Yen-bullish) trend bias.

Chart of US Dollar vs Japanese Yen exchange rate, trader sentiment

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide


Nevertheless, surveying the Japanese unit’s individual pairings with top-tier currency counterparts reveals prices have run into meaningful technical barriers to further Yen appreciation. AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY finished last week sitting squarely at daily-chart support. USD/JPY itself is not quite there but seems close enough to tilt risk/reward parameters against sellers.

Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen price chart - daily

AUD/JPY daily chart created with TradingView

Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen price chart - daily

CAD/JPY daily chart created with TradingView

New Zealand Dollar vs Japanese Yen price chart - daily

NZD/JPY daily chart created with TradingView

Euro vs Japanese Yen price chart - daily

EUR/JPY daily chart created with TradingView

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen price chart - daily

USD/JPY daily chart created with TradingView

This means that potential new entrants on the short side might be discouraged on tactical grounds, figuring the move is too far gone to be chased. If this proves to set the stage for a digestive pause, some opportunistic bearish bets with a relatively near-term horizon might be unwound. This could translate into a corrective pull-up, which may offer would-be sellers an improved risk/reward profile.

Starts in:
Live now:
Jan 25
( 03:01 GMT )
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Cross-Market Weekly Outlook
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.