News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/MGy9OTXpUI
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ph20zFv4qS https://t.co/v4g9ATf4rr
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/De69mTseZN
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/D7AeTM5OpH
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/9B4rJnzWuz https://t.co/ENF3xlkuyP
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/Gps2Xp32h9
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/hftCEho1lM
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/MzaIl7tPmZ
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/rFlQtyQS81
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/BPHuKecwnz https://t.co/73OmuCKfU9
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook: Charts Mired by Confluence

Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook: Charts Mired by Confluence

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST: TECHNICAL RESOLUTION SOUGHT AFTER BEFORE NEXT MAJOR MOVE

  • Crude oil price action experienced a considerable amount of volatility recently that has potential to carry over into the final quarter of 2019 beginning next week
  • The price of crude oil remains juxtaposed between compressing trendlines as the commodity continues to coil like a spring before a major sustained breakout
  • Be sure to check out these Crude Oil Trading Tips and Strategies

Crude oil continued to edge lower this past week from its recent surge earlier in the month owing to a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco. That supply shock induced spike in the price of crude oil sent the commodity skyrocketing above prior trendline resistance extended from the April 23 and July 15 swing highs. That said, the lack of follow-through after breaching clear technical levels has occurred multiple times this year, and is a bit concerning when attempting to establish trend.

CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 27, 2019 TO SEPTEMBER 27, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Chart Technical Analysis Outlook

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

The short-lived jump in crude oil ran out of steam after kissing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its trading range since the commodity topped out earlier this year around $67.00. Recently, heavy selling pressure has driven the price of crude oil back to major technical confluence around a zone of $54.00-56.00, which is underpinned by the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibs of the previously mentioned trading range. This area is also highlighted by the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.

CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (AUGUST 06, 2019 TO SEPTEMBER 27, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook: Charts Mired by Confluence

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Nevertheless, crude oil bulls will likely look to the bullish sloping trendline formed by the series of higher lows printed since the bottom set in August. A breach of rising support brings the August 26 and September 3 lows around $53.00 into focus, though the door could open for a retest of the August 7 swing low if this last line of defense fails to keep crude oil prices afloat.

That said, the RSI and MACD indicators shown above could be signaling fading selling pressure as the commodity bounces off confluent support at the $56.00 price level. Looking to the upside, the mid-point retracement of crude oil’s trading range since its August 7 low, in addition to the 50-SMA and 200-SMA, might keep a lid on upside progress. If this area can be topped, however, the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibs of crude oil’s recent bullish leg could serve as potential upside peaks before the September swing high comes into scope.

OIL VOLATILITY INDEX (OVX) & CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (AUGUST 07, 2018 TO SEPTEMBER 27, 2019)

Oil Volatility Index Price Chart Correlation With Crude Oil

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Expected oil price volatility – measured through the Cboe crude oil volatility index (OVX) – looks like it could be attempting to turn back higher. The typically inverse correlation between the two is presently positive, but it appears to be drifting back to its typical relationship. Alas, an uptick in volatility could bode ill for the commodity. Nevertheless, a glance at IG Client Sentimentdata could provide traders with a unique look at the bearish and bullish change in biases among retail traders as crude oil price action progresses.

CRUDE OIL – IG CLIENT SENTIMENT INDEX PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 13, 2019 TO SEPTEMBER 27, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Chart and Client Positioning

Chart via IG Client Sentiment Report

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES