News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Technical Levels for $NZDUSD, $NZDCAD, $NZDJPY Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/04/21/New-Zealand-Dollar-Forecast-Technical-Levels-for-NZDUSD-NZDCAD-NZDJPY.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/IG…
  • Sunshine and rainbows for #Gold bulls at the moment, as yields on 30-year Treasuries validate the downside break of a Descending Triangle and eye a push back below 2.2% Gold’s Double Bottom implies a move to 1835 is on the cards in the near term #GLD #US30Y https://t.co/PSSdOolvlP
  • RT @KyleR_IG: The Aussie 10Y yield: surely this thing has to break lower at some point, especially with bullish sentiment cooling off in gl…
  • Bitcoin struggled to maintain a push into record highs and appears to be vulnerable to a near-term pullback. Litecoin and Ethereum saw more aggressive gains, will their momentum accelerate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/f5d7qs5j3z https://t.co/dhLJjkQEnx
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.12% Silver: 0.05% Oil - US Crude: -1.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fb0rTb7U02
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: AUD/USD Mixed as Retail Sales Surpass Expectations $AUD $USD Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/21/AUDUSD-Mixed-as-Retail-Sales-Surpass-Expectations.html
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/KHYBRYg6wf
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.46%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 66.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/VNFQudLmfc
  • #USDZAR looking incredibly interesting after breaching the neckline of a Double Top pattern A short-term bounce could be at hand but if 14.50 remains intact, a more extended push lower seems likely in the coming weeks $USDZAR https://t.co/1rHgmX4zyB
  • RT @KyleR_IG: "Retail sales rose 1.4 per cent in March" https://t.co/aM9vXo5s49 #ausbiz
COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Canadian dollar large speculators continue to build long after unwinding from record short
  • Australian dollar large specs increase net-long position for 6th week in a row as it breaks range
  • Gold longs increase for first time since June from a low level, may set up for a break of 2011 trend-line at some point

Check out the Q3 Forecasts for our outlook on currencies, commodities, and equity indices.

Every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows futures traders’ positioning as it stands for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below are the net positions of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); the change in their positioning from the prior week and where the net position stands compared to its 52-week range.

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

Noteworthy developments

Gold – Large specs in gold futures have primarily been sellers in the past three months, bringing their net-long position down to the low-end of the range over the past 10-yr+ period. The most recent report showed an increase in longs for the first time since early June. The precious metal is trading around the widely-watched 2011 trend-line, and on that with positioning relatively small compared to other times in recent years, we could finally see a drive higher above the bull/bear line-in-the-sand. A strong weekly close above the trend-line and move beyond the June high at 1296 will be our cue to look for a broader rally to develop. But the key will be for gold to clearly exceed these hurdles before becoming overly bullish.

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

Gold: Weekly

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

Canadian dollar – As CAD continues to steam-roll on ahead, so does the unwind from a record short position held by large speculators to a long position. At the time (in May), we noted that the extreme positioning profile set the Canadian dollar up for a rally. It’s been an aggressive rally, and with USDCAD nearing a trend-line extending back to September 2012 the unwind from short to a net long position in CAD may soon be put in reverse should we see the long-term threshold support the US dollar versus the Canadian currency.

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

Australian dollar – Large speculators in AUD have increased their net long for a 6th week in a row, bringing the total number of contracts held (56k) to just shy of the largest position since April of last year (59k). A build-up of longs from here beyond 59k would take net longs to the largest position in over four years. Positioning in the past year+ has been volatile as the Australian dollar was in search of a direction from its trading range. Now that it is broken free perhaps more upside will follow along with an increase in the number of trend-followers also jumping onboard the trend.

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

COT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs GrowCOT: Gold Prices Entice Large Speculators, Australian & Canadian Dollar Longs Grow

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES