Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
USDCAD One-week Options Projected Range-Low in Confluence with LT Trend-line

USDCAD One-week Options Projected Range-Low in Confluence with LT Trend-line

What’s inside:

  • USDCAD amid strongest decline since early last year
  • 2012 to current trend-line not far below, in alignment with projected one-week low
  • Top-side range-high not in alignment with resistance; could be exceeded on a bounce

Looking for a longer-term view on USDCAD? Check out our Q3 Forecast.

In the following table, we’ve listed implied volatilities (IV) for major USD-pairs looking out over a one-day and one-week time horizon. By using IV, we’ve calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically speaking, 68% of the time price should remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)

USDCAD projected one-week low in alignment with long-term trend-line

The decline in USDCAD has been quite significant since topping in May, the strongest one-way move since early 2016. With one-week implied volatility at 8.7%, the projected one-standard deviation range from the current spot price is 12323 to 12623. The one-week low arrives in almost exact alignment with a trend-line rising up from the low created in September 2012. The long-term nature of this line coupled with the steep drop into oversold territory sets USDCAD up for a potential bounce.

It’s possible we have already seen the worst for now around the May 2016 low, but one more push down into a bigger support level would provide a more ideal scenario for those looking for a recovery. With the priced range in confluence this further strengthens the case we have seen the worst of the down-move for now.

Turning our attention higher, the one-week projected high clocks in at 12623 and doesn’t align with any significant resistance. Should we see a rally develop soon its possible we may see the options-derived threshold exceeded in the next week, as shorts who arrived on the scene late get squeezed.

In total, while selling has been fierce, a move lower into support looks likely to see the range-low hold while risk is skewed towards possibly seeing the range-high exceeded.

For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.


See the Webinar Calendar for a schedule of upcoming live events with DailyFX analysts.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.